Armenianow.com had an interesting article “Present and Future Power Debate: Who will be the choices in 2008?” which examines the possible scenarios of political developments, probable candidates and the effects of these decisions on the political life in the country. However, all the arguments brought to and for this or that candidate in the article are most irrelevent to see the overall picture in the country. The one and only thing that got me interested was rather this one single point made by Washington D.C./Yerevan political analyst Richard Giragosian: more…

So it’s 2 years since those protests on Baghramyan Avenue, when peaceful protestors were shot with water cannons, and violently beaten. Many have forgotten this, and it seems Mr Kocharyan is enjoying a perceivably high amount of power.

A1 plus has the story here

I also had a look at our friends over at Cilicia.com and pulled up the logs from April , take a look at how the repats there felt at the time here. ( scroll down to 12th April)

The following news release from the U.S. Embassy was released today:

Ambassador Evans met with President Kocharian on Tuesday, January 17 to discuss concerns that have arisen in Washington and elsewhere in connection with the November 27 referendum on the constitutional amendments. The Millennium Challenge Compact that was approved in December by the Board of Directors of the Millennium Challenge Corporation has yet to be signed, and the announcement of the compact’s approval was accompanied by a letter to President Kocharian from Ambassador John Danilovich, the MCC’s chief executive officer, voicing “concerns about the Government of Armenia’s commitment to good governance.” To be eligible for assistance under the Millennium Challenge Account, states must satisfy certain criteria, one of which can be summarized as “ruling justly.” The Ambassador and President Kocharian discussed possible steps that might be taken to reassure the United States that Armenia remains committed to strengthening democratic institutions and to the holding of free and fair elections in 2007 and 2008. Ambassador Evans and President Kocharian also discussed cooperation between the two countries aimed at combating the threat of avian influenza.

Advice to Amb Evans and people who share this approach: don’t haggle over the price AFTER the deal is made. Having announced the MCC compact, the U.S. really gave up the only lever they had.

Ian Bremmer has an article in Slate today that covers “nonrevolutions” and why they matter.

But a nonrevolution sometimes matters, too, particularly when it uncovers previously hidden political and social instability and poses problems for the future of a volatile region.

How come?

Still, the absence of revolution does not mean that the two states are equally stable or that what happened doesn’t matter. While Nursultan Nazarbayev’s Kazakh government remains as well-entrenched after the election as it was before, Ilham Aliyev’s Azerbaijan may now face a newly radicalized and disruptive opposition.

So why didn’t Kazakhstan or Azerbaijan have a revolution? Bremmer says because of one thing: oil! (and therefore money!)

Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan, the three countries have something very basic in common: They all lack the oil and gas revenues that have stabilized Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

Remember back in November when I was floored with the stability and prosperity in AZ?

Bremmer makes a good point:

That income matters enormously. In states that enjoy substantial energy wealth, some of the revenues trickle down to key segments of the citizenry and enhance quality of life. True, the benefits are unevenly distributed. But the extra income these governments receive ensures that elites have the resources to buy off key individuals and groups—and to better finance the use of oppression where necessary. The ruling regimes in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have experienced all these benefits.

Those key segments matter A LOT!

Bremmer goes into the Azerbaijani opposition and their interested in the NK settlement or lack thereof.

He says that the main opposition group, Azadlyg, is going to change tactics “because the Azerbaijani government rigged the elections to limit those gains and the United States has refused to become directly involved.” He thinks that they are going to try to screw up the NK resolution.

Aliyev knows that the various opposition parties can win increased popular support by playing on nationalist resistance to compromise on the issue, thereby blocking his efforts to improve Azerbaijan’s standing in the region and his own international reputation.

So, Armenia, without any of this oil money? Will it have a revolution, according to Bremmer’s theory? It remains to be seen.

Not sure what all this referendum talk is about? Click here for OpenDemocracy’s interpretation.

But ultimately, the greatest losers of all may be Armenia’s citizens: indifferent to electoral processes that do not reflect their will, deprived of their belief in their ability to effect change, their trust in the power of western-sponsored democracy itself may be eroding.

According to PanArmenian.net, with 1901 out of 1922 precincts processed, the Central Electoral Commission reports that the turnout in the referendum was 65%, and over 93% voted for the Constitutional referendum.

This is of course the most lopsided poll result ever in Armenia’s post-independence history. Very curious results. Equally (but positively) surprising is the amazing speed with which the results were posted by the CEC.

The opposition (which boycotted the vote and gave up its right to monitor the vote through precinct commissions) suggests that the turnout is heavily inflated. According to PanArmenian.net:

According to the Public Information Center of the United Opposition, as of 8:00 p.m. local time 374667 constituents have voted throughout the territory of Armenia, which makes 16.3% of the total number of electors. «The referendum is not legitimate and constitutional amendments were not passed, If the authorities cannot normally and legitimately organize a process, there is no choice except revolution» New Times opposition party leader Aram Karapetyan said during a news conference in Yerevan today, in which leaders of united opposition parties also took part.

The protest rally/civic forum called by Armenia’s popular opposition leaders Aram Sargsian and Raffi Hovannisian (among others) brought together about 1200 people, and had to disperse for lack of momentum (and lack of support from popular opposition leaders Stepan Demirchian and Artashes Geghamian). We are assured that Monday will be (another) decisive day for the opposition.

The most curious comment, however, came from Turkey where one of the newspaper bemoaned the removal of ban on dual citizenship which will give ‘evil Diaspora’ more leeway in Armenian politics.

Things to watch for today: the turnout at the opposition rally; the statements by the U.S. and PACE; who will take credit for the Yes victory and how.

U.S. Ambassador to Armenia, John Evans penned an op-ed on the Referendum, which appeared in several Armenian newspapers today.

DAY OF DECISION

Much has been said and written about the forthcoming referendum on the proposed amendments to the Constitution that will take place on Sunday. I do not intend to debate the merits of the package that will be put to Armenia’s voters; our position is well known and we support the recent statement of the President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe in this matter. But I do wish to make clear that, in our view, a time of civic responsibility is at hand. How the authorities and the voting population of the Republic of Armenia conduct their affairs over the next few days is, of course, an internal matter. But in today’s shrunken world, where news travels at the speed of light, what happens here will inevitably become known and influence opinion in places far away, for better or for worse. History has shown more than once that it is not enough, in a democracy, to have fine words on paper enshrined in a fundamental law, or constitution…

…Armenia has an opportunity this Sunday to demonstrate that it can conduct a ballot without irregularity. We hope all of Armenia’s eligible voters will exercise their civic duty. If there is any lesson that ought to have been learned from the events of the last few years, in both hemispheres, it is that defrauding the voters, or preventing them from exercising their right to express their choice, hurts the country, its citizens and the incumbent authorities. Even in the case of elections or referenda that are adequately monitored by trained and experienced international election observers, much inevitably depends on the seriousness and sense of responsibility of the officials whose job it is to administer and oversee the process of voting. If they do an honest and effective job, everyone will win, no matter what the final result may be. If, on the contrary, there are serious irregularities, everyone will lose…

The US Embassy in Yerevan issued a statement to American citizens urging them not to mingle amongst protestors for safety reasons.

Sounds familiar.

The Financial Times noted today that investors should keep chugging their money into Azerbaijan regardless of political activities there. Ian Bremmer wrote this article.

He tells investors: “Assuming that opposition protests do not grow and change in character over the next couple of weeks, investors can continue to find profitable opportunities in oil-rich Azerbaijan.”

There are several reasons why Azerbaijan remains stable. First, President Aliyev is popular. When a son inherits power from his father, many assume he will struggle to consolidate power. But Mr Aliyev has shed his playboy image and earned considerable respect within Azerbaijan and the region.

Second, Mr Aliyev inherited an economy infused with petro-dollars. No end is in sight to the high oil prices that bolster Azerbaijan’s economy, and Mr Aliyev has undertaken some modest economic reforms. He is backed by Azerbaijan’s military establishment.

Third, and most important, Azerbaijan’s opposition is badly fragmented. During Georgia’s Rose Revolution in 2003 and Ukraine’s Orange Revolution in 2004, the efforts of individual charismatic and well-known opposition figures to dislodge entrenched elites enjoyed broad public support. In Azerbaijan, rivalries among opposition leaders cripple the ability of the factions to pool their resources.

PACE President called on Armenian citizens to participate in the upcoming Constitutional referendum, essentially counteracting the opposition calls for a boycott.

The President of the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly, René van der Linden, has appealed to all Armenian citizens to participate in the forthcoming Constitutional referendum on 27 November.

“The revision of the Constitution is a major political event that will affect the daily lives of all Armenian citizens. It is therefore important that everyone expresses their opinion,” he said. “Failure of this referendum due to a too low turnout, a repetition of what happened during the first Constitutional referendum on 25 May 2003, would be a major setback for Armenia’s progress in fulfilling some of the most important commitments the country made when joining the Council of Europe.” The President concluded: “This is an opportunity for Armenians to show their commitment to Europe.”

Armenian newspapers report that National Assembly Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan said he had been invited to speak at the Kiev Independence Square - The Maidan - by the country’s president Viktor Yuschenko on the occasion of the first anniversary of the Orange Revolution. Made it sound like he didn’t really want to go but what could he do? Yuschenko really begged him to come since he (Yuschenko) knows Artur is a big-time democrat.

Amusing, actually, how all Armenian politicians are clamoring for a piece of orange revolution credentials.

Links:
Regnum

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, speaking after disputed election results, has said revolution is impossible in his country.

“Sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” - Lewis Carroll

Although…

“They [the opposition] started bargaining with the government. Regardless of how many seats they will finally get – 15, 20 or 60 — it means that the revolution is cancelled. Foreign journalists who are waiting for revolutionary developments in Azerbaijan can start to pack their suitcases,” Ilgar Mammadov, an independent political analyst, told EurasiaNet.

Did the opposition sell out to the government because they decided to bargain or was it the correct legal thing to do?

RFE/RL has an interesting article today on youth activism in Azerbaijan.

The post-Soviet generation of opposition leaders briefly held power in the 90s, but now looks increasingly marginalized — not least to a new generation of young, sometimes Western-educated Azerbaijanis who are beginning to look for new answers to Azerbaijan’s political realities.

To continue my ranting from last week that all of the young talents Armenians have to leave the country, right? Well, if they are all gone, is there no hope for a future political leadership?

“We have to change all those who run the state so someone good comes to power. That’s all,” one of them said.

“If they give us (youth) the chance, if they give us the power, we’ll do everything for the sake of Azerbaijan,” said another.

“Our young people like to buy expensive mobile phones and dress well — but those are the young people who have money,” Huseynov said. “When most people leave school — if they can’t get into higher education — they go to Russia and other countries to make money. Those who finish higher education can’t find a normal life here, which is why they’re beginning to turn to the path of opposition and are beginning to join youth organizations like ours.”

A new post-Soviet generation is emerging in Azerbaijan — and the battle to win its loyalty is only just beginning.

Is the post-Soviet generation in Armenia too busy making less than $100/month at a crappy job ready to emerge?

What can be done to help them emerge?

The Azeri view on NK? Well, based on a combination of my time with FLEX students from Azerbaijan and conversations that I’ve had over the past days, certainly people seem ready to compromise. Some less than others, of course.

As I’ve mentioned before, institutionalized propaganda against Armenians seems to be stronger here. But I’ve been pleasantly surprised with the practical nature of many Azeris that I’ve spoken to about this issue.

It seems that most people (that I’ve discussed this with) just want to make sure that Azerbaijan gets something out of it so that the President (or whoever negotiates the deal) doesn’t look like a chump. If the Azeri prez gives everything up to Armenia, his people will hate him. Seems logical, right?

Some people here (that I’ve discussed this with) seemed to be okay with the solution, proposed a few years back, where Armenia got NK, Lachin, and Azerbaijan got the occupied territories back and a strip of land connecting it with Nakichevan. Remember this plan? Remember what happened to the people in Armenia that thought that this was okay? Yeah. Well, Azeris (that I’ve discussed this with) were okay with this plan and say that Armenia and Iran would still have that border and international troops would patrol it.

Seems fair. I don’t want to get into the NK battle with anyone, but at this point, everyone could benefit from a resolution. Azeri established businesses want to get into Armenia. Armenia needs more trading partners. Both economies and societies would benefit from having less troops. It would be great if people could travel back and forth!

Look at Germany. It did terrible things during WWII, right? Does France, today, still hold a grudge against Germany for occupying it? Obviously the Armenian-Azeri issue is a bit more complicated, with the Armenian sentiment against Turkey and Azeribaijan and Turkey’s relationship. But I hope that at some people the countries can collaborate again. Older people that I’ve talked to here remember going to Armenia during Soviet times and enjoying it.

We all need to ask if long-term, having a chunk of Armenia in the middle of another country is a good idea, but for the shorter long-term, it seems to be alright.

Do I think that this will happen soon? Who knows. But I remain positive.

Following up to some comment discussions: I’ve told friends here that if they were Armenians living in Armenia, they would either have to move abroad or if they stayed in-country they’d be working an an international NGO making less than $1000/month and working extremely hard. And that is a fact. I know many brilliant, wonderful young Armenians living elsewhere. And I’m happy for them, but sad for Armenia. A generation of its best and brightest are gone.

Also, I’ve been in Baku for just a few days and I’ve already met a pretty large number of young, successful Azeris. I can count on one hand after years of spending time in Armenia, friends that are doing even close to as well. There has to be something to that. Perhaps it is coincidence, perhaps it is not.

I’ve met and spoke with one or two ex-pats since I’ve been here.

I’m bummed for Armenia. What can be done to bring these people back?

We’re talking about the results at neweurasia.

Lots of political updating on there too.

IMG_0165

Originally uploaded by katypearce.

kitty

There are a lot of ways to be young and rich in Baku. Oil companies and other foreign companies seem to pay pretty darn well here. And some of these people are living a really nice social life.

Requirements:

- speak English near perfectly
- be smart
- be young 25-35
- dress well
- be prepared to work really hard - even weekends and late nights

I’ve met a lot of people like this - guys and girls. I don’t feel like I’ve met as many in Yerevan. All these type of people seem to be living abroad rather than in Armenia. These types can make a life for themselves in Baku easily. Is it as easy in Yerevan? Will oil always be the difference?

I’m posting news of the elections live on Azerbaijan New Eurasia.

day 2 NOVEMBER 5:

So I went to the old city. BEAUTIFUL! Walked around and enjoyed the sites. It is great to have so many old beautiful buildings in the middle of the city. Then I walked along the water for a while. I had specific instructions to go a certain way to get home. Unfortunately, there is a serious lack of street signage in Baku and I got lost a number of times. I’m so glad I had a pocket map. I utilized a lot of sign language today.

I like getting lost though, because it creates familiarity and allows me to see things that I otherwise wouldn’t. I walked through some really neat neighborhoods. Eventually it started getting dark, and I was quite lost on the way home. Hopefully the lost part will force me to know my way better. Basically I was looking for some backstairs when I should have been looking for the front driveway area.

As it got darker, I got more cat calls, which increased my urgency of getting home. Russian, German, and occasionally French werethe dominant cat calls. There could have been some in Azerbaijani, but I wasn’t able to detect a difference in tone.

I also noticed that I am speaking a lot moreBritish English than American English now. Flat, queue, lovely, proper (as in “proper” trainers)… confusing.

So many stray cats. No stray dogs — although I saw a few posh dogs. The stray cats are all different colors though and really cute.

The oil money is outrageous. I wish that the government had a better idea of what to do with it and how to create programs that workwell. There are a lot of nice buildings though. I suppose some of the money goes there.

I really need to take a shower. Maybe I can try to fix the hot water heater. I am going out tonight with a friend of a friend.

UPDATE: the shower is fixed! I will take a photo of it so it can be proven exactly how complicated it is. Can you imagine being naked, lighting a match, switching on a gas knob and determining what temperature you want?

Other thoughts: I should be reading coursework while my hair is drying but I have a not-so-small love of post-Soviet TV. Yes, Azerbaijani videos are as cheesy as Armenian ones. I already recognized videos shot in areas that I walked around in today. Although there are a few that aren’t too bad, the majority are pretty lame. I just saw one with a guy standing in front of a green screen that alternates between the Azerbaijani flag and a bunch of rocks. I have yet to see a “series” though - a set all filmed on the same stage or place for different songs on an album. Oh no. On the Russian channel, Russian boy band rappers. Ouch. Their name is “Nota Fraid.” Ugh. This is like the UK show “X-Factor” - it is sort of like the Pop Idol series, and is produced by the same people, but I don’t really understand the difference between the two shows. Right now the judges are not being kind to the youngsters. The competition is named Boby (in Russian) Lipinksy. He is really really really bad. Must change channel. Now Masha Meronakova is on. She is bad too. Is this a contest for the worst singer? In flipping the channel, I found a similar Turkish show. Flipping between the two may be entertaining. The Turkish version of the Backstreet Boys is eliciting screams from the audience. The bad boy, the cute one, the nice one, the dark one… they’re all there. Uh oh. There is a rap interlude a la Color Me Badd. These guys have to go into the bad category too. Now a girl group is starting on the Russian show. They’re cute and well dressed. Maybe there is hope. Nope. Nevermind. They sound like they are their local karaoke champions, but not much more. Korleva is the group’s name. Okay, single male singer with spiky hair. I am beginning to think that the judges sponsor certain singers and train them. This kid can sing but has a horrible song. Bad pile.