After a few weeks of work in Yerevan, I am happy to return to rural Armenia. The greater Yerevan area is getting harder and harder to enjoy and the expense of staying there is becoming unreasonable. Sadly, in my time in the capital, I went visiting old friends in my favorite part of the center which is Tigran Mets past St. Gregory. It is part of Yerevan that still has some neighborhood charm with Tashir being the only major blight on the area. However, that is about to change.

My dear friends are beside themselves as what happened in the area of which is now North Avenue is due to repeat itself with the recently passed law allowing the government to use eminent domain for development purposes. The area from Tashir to the Erebuni area border on Tigran Mets will soon be seized by the government and auctioned off. The area’s best known residents are the owners of the large meat market that starts opposite the Gyum Shuka. Plans are even calling for the ripping down of the triangular shaped apartment building that starts on the south corner across from Tashir which would displace hundreds of families. Will these families receive $200,000 so they can buy a similar apartment in the center? I doubt it.

Rumors are thick but it is suspected the Sarkissiyan family is behind this push as it is the last area of the center of Yerevan that is populated by local Yerevansti. Of course, knowing the current leadership’s business interest it is also a power grab as some of the most successful small meat merchants reside in this area. As we know, most of the current oligarchs have major interest in the food chain as it provides great cash flow. Again, we see the use of the government to condense power for a few and remove the ability for small business owners to make a reasonable living.

My friends have condemned the current building spree that seems to be fueled by investment from outside Armenia. I am constantly asked, “Who is buying these apartments in the center?” Most people who read this blog are Diaspora or like myself care greatly for the country. Many people from this love wish to live in Armenia some of the year so they buy a modern apartment in the city center but it seems most remain ignorant of the social injustices that occurred to build that apartment. At the same time, as Onnik talks about today, there doubts about the structural integrity of those buildings.

The locals are angry and they are frustrated because at every turn they are loosing the opportunity to compete. Many feel they are being pushed out of the center and even the areas of Komitas, Barikamutsun and Monument, people are realizing they can no longer afford property but foreign peoples can easily buy the property for what by developed nation standards is a bargain. My friends, if you are investing in Armenia, be sure you are investing in a way that makes you part of the community. What makes Armenia strong is its sense of community. Having the whole center of Yerevan full of rich people will quickly end the culture which people have come to be a part of.

We cannot say the market will take care of itself due to the lack of freedom and the use of law to force people out. If you are investing or have invested, look at your motives. Would you be better giving that money in rent then continue to encourage the oligarchs to rip apart what was five years ago one of the nicest city centers I have ever seen.

Armenialiberty.org reports on some shocking news. A 44 year old father of 4, Jivan Hakopian, from the Armavir region, set himself alight by pouring petrol on himself and chanted anti-government slogans outside the main government buildings in Yerevan. He was taken to hospital but died later.

His family are not commenting, and the Mayor of his Village says he had no complaints made by Hakopian, but the Prime Ministers office has said they have recieved letters from Hakopian requesting loans to compensate for extreme loss of savings during the hyperinflation in the early 90’s, when many Armenian citizens lost their Soviet era accumilations. Hakopian also requested meetings with Gagik Tsarukian , and Stepan Demirchyan. The requests went unanswered.

This is a shocking incident to an extreme degree. What frustration and upset does it require for a man to leave his family and children behind , probably due to a truly helpless situation. It is difficult to speculate, but one thing is for sure - the government cannot cover this one up. It is a display of the true degree of anger and helplessness that one can encounter after a conversation with many an Armenian citizen.

It will be interesting to note how the strongly pro Kocharyan Public television will report this event.

This weekend was a busy one for many Armenian economists and policy makers. The “Armenian International Public Research Group” conducted its fourth annual conference at the World Bank in Washington D.C. Like other years, the conference brought together many Armenians and non-Armenians who work on Armenia related economic, political and judicial spheres, and hoped that the policy recommendations will be taken up by the Armenian government in its pursuit of reforming and improving the mentioned aspects.

I would highly recommend those of you that are interested in the future of Armenia to visit the website: http://www.armpolicyresearch.org and read the abundant materiel on the topics I mentioned earlier. Some of the readings are a bit technical, but the rest can be digested by most of us.

Armenianow.com posted a little later than usual yesterday, so in case you haven’t looked at it yet, it has a number of stories on NGOs that are doing really good work. Even better — they aren’t all in Yerevan!

One especially interesting case is of an NK NGO that has trouble getting funding as NK isn’t recognized as a state. (Or maybe this was especially interesting to me because I am writing a paper on the statehood question for my international law class right now!)

Please check out ArmeniaNow for some really great stories of NGOs doing positive things.

On a related topic, I shared with a crowd at Onnik’s presentation in London, an excellent survey of NGOs in Armenia done by a wonderful scholar at the LSE, Dr. Armine Ishkanian. Here’s a publically free work of hers that may interest you if you’re curious about NGOs in Armenia. If you have access to a university’s library online database you can surely fine her longer works.

Onnik posts about homelessness in Armenia in the wintertime. As he covered extensively last year, homelessness is a problem that is really under-discussed in Yerevan, Armenia, and the rest of the Armenian world.

Please read his recent posting on the topic.

(Sorry for the late response — busy travel weekend!)

I’ll be in Mexico, but to share with anyone in the DC area:

Growth and Poverty Reduction in Armenia
Friday, January 13, 2006; 12:30-2:00 p.m.
(light refreshments will be served)
IMF Auditorium (Visitors enter via IMF Center)
720 19th Street NW, Washington, DC

Armenia, a small landlocked country in Central Asia, has emerged as a reform leader within the Commonwealth of Independent States and positioned itself as one of the countries that could achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. The book looks at the factors behind the recent period of economic stability, high economic growth, and poverty reduction; and identifies the policy issues that deserve further attention to sustain growth and further reduce poverty.

The discussion will be led by the following panelists:

Mohsin Khan
Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department
IMF

Enrique Gelbard
Deputy Division Chief and former Mission Chief to Armenia
IMF

Johannes Linn
Executive Director, The Wolfensohn Initiative
Brookings Institution

* * * * *

Please note that due to enhanced security arrangements:

1. An RSVP is required: EventsRSVP@imf.org or (202) 623 7001.

2. A picture ID is required to enter the Fund. Persons and bags will be screened. Please arrive 15-20 minutes early to allow for possible delays in entering the building due to these additional measures.

3. Only IMF/World Bank Staff ID holders should enter through the main 700 19th St. entrance. If you do not hold a staff ID, please enter through the IMF Center entrance, 720 19th St. N.W. Washington DC.

4. Those who have already sent a RSVP in response to an earlier announcement about this event need not respond again.

[source]

Armenia decided today to raise benefits for those in poverty 20%. This will now be US$34 each month. [source]

This is part of Armenia’s PRSP (Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper). If you’re not familiar with what a PRSP is, here’s a little background. The international finance institutions were getting a lot of slack for having a top-down approach to economic development. In the late 1990s, after a series of Structural Adjustment Programs which didn’t work very well, it was determined that a collective effort between a country’s government, its NGOs, and these financial institutions would be a better way to determine what the economic problems of a country are and how poverty can be reduced.

So in the late 1990s - early 2000s there was a rush to write up these plans. You can see Armenia’s plan here.

The World Bank and IMF said “If you don’t create one of these plans, no more money from us!” Doesn’t really give a country a choice, does it?

Some would argue that the PRSPs are silly. The governments of the world (not just Armenia) won’t follow the rules… they avoid the poorest of the poor, etc.

To get some more perspective on Armenia’s PRSP, check out this article.

One important thing to know about PRSPs — they are written in the vocabulary of the Millenium Development Goals. Know about those?

By 2015, the entire world is supposed to do these things:
1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
2. Achieve universal primary education
3. Promote gender equality and empower women
4. Reduce child mortality
5. Improve maternal health
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases
7. Ensure environmental sustainability
8. Develop a global partnership for development

There were some 2005 goals, but few countries met them. Let’s keep our fingers crossed for 2015.

Want to learn more? Check out the Wikipedia article on PRSP.

BusinessWeek has an article this week on this topic. Is this applicable to Armenia?

Some highlights:

* Since 1983, Grameen Bank, of which Yunus is founder and managing director, has lent $5.3 billion to borrowers in Bangladesh, spawning replicated programs in more than 100 countries.

* Out of those companies Yunus developed the Village Phone Project, where women borrowers would take a loan to buy a handset and solar-powered charger and function as their village pay phone, providing the women with substantially increased income. Now, there are nearly 200,000 telephone ladies all over Bangladesh, and that number keeps increasing. So state-of-the-art mobile technology has reached the very poor people, and it’s a very good source of income for them. If a poor woman gets hold of one mobile phone in the village, then this is a sure bet that her entire family can move out of poverty in two or three years. Friends or enemies, critics and admirers across the board all admire Village Phone because it has brought telephone connectivity everywhere in Bangladesh, not just in the cities.

* “I’m encouraging young people to become social business entrepreneurs and contribute to the world, rather than just making money. Making money is no fun. Contributing to and changing the world is a lot more fun.”

* Beggars project: Instead of begging door-to-door, the loan allows them to buy some ribbons or some candy and sell it door-to-door.

* Using solar power in villages.

* Telemedicine - medical care through video conferencing.

The Millennium Challenge Corporation has approved a five-year $235.65 million Compact with the Republic of Armenia.

To overcome these constraints, Armenia’s Millennium Challenge Compact aims to reduce rural poverty through a sustainable increase in the economic performance of the agricultural sector. The Compact consists of two investments: a Rural Road Rehabilitation Project and an Irrigated Agriculture Project. The program will directly impact 75% of the rural population and is expected to increase annual incomes by $36 million in 2010 and over $113 million in 2015.

Hoorah! Rural poverty is so hot right now. People may disagree with me, but I just hate the rotating “flavour of the week” attitude that these development agencies get into.

Anyway, interestingly, the MCC Corp. mentioned one other thing of interest:

Addressing reports of irregularities in the referendum on reforms to the Armenian constitution held in November, Ambassador Danilovich continued, “MCC is concerned about the government’s lack of transparency and commitment to open and fair elections in the recent referendum. I have expressed those concerns to President Kocharyan and look forward to working with the government to protect Armenians’ ability to participate fully in the electoral process. MCC was designed to reward and work with nations that take the hard steps necessary to create a policy framework to spur economic growth and reduce poverty. Consequently, Armenia’s continued participation in the Millennium Challenge Program depends on its good performance in ruling justly, investing in people, and encouraging economic freedom. MCC will continue to monitor Armenia’s policy performance in these three categories throughout the life of the Compact.”

OUCH! Good thing that the rural poor probably aren’t surfing the web and reading this English language press release. If they knew that the MCC was ticked at the Armenian government, they might get ticked too!

Tonight’s activity:

POVERTY, TRANSITION AND DEMOCRACY IN ARMENIA: An Update

AGBU London lecture Series

PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION

Armenian House, 25 Cheniston Gardens, London W8
9 December 2005, 7 pm.
Nearest tube High Street Kensington.

Come see Onnik!

James Tufenkian, who is in rug manufacturing and tourism development business in Armenia, has been recognized by Travel and Leisure magazine for “defending the historical, cultural, and ecological integrity of tourist destinations.”

Specifically,

The magazine paid tribute to seven innovative programs and initiatives across seven categories in the inaugural Global Vision Awards. Selected by a jury of seven distinguished global travel authorities, the winners are defending the historical, cultural, and ecological integrity of various regions throughout the world and are featured in the magazine’s December issue.

The winners are:
Economic Development: Tufenkian Artisan Carpets, Nepal and Armenia
New York-based James Tufenkian has enhanced the economy of developing communities in Nepal and Armenia by implementing worker-welfare programs, providing schools, housing, medical facilities and a water-purification plant for thousands of artisans and craftspeople.

The Azeri view on NK? Well, based on a combination of my time with FLEX students from Azerbaijan and conversations that I’ve had over the past days, certainly people seem ready to compromise. Some less than others, of course.

As I’ve mentioned before, institutionalized propaganda against Armenians seems to be stronger here. But I’ve been pleasantly surprised with the practical nature of many Azeris that I’ve spoken to about this issue.

It seems that most people (that I’ve discussed this with) just want to make sure that Azerbaijan gets something out of it so that the President (or whoever negotiates the deal) doesn’t look like a chump. If the Azeri prez gives everything up to Armenia, his people will hate him. Seems logical, right?

Some people here (that I’ve discussed this with) seemed to be okay with the solution, proposed a few years back, where Armenia got NK, Lachin, and Azerbaijan got the occupied territories back and a strip of land connecting it with Nakichevan. Remember this plan? Remember what happened to the people in Armenia that thought that this was okay? Yeah. Well, Azeris (that I’ve discussed this with) were okay with this plan and say that Armenia and Iran would still have that border and international troops would patrol it.

Seems fair. I don’t want to get into the NK battle with anyone, but at this point, everyone could benefit from a resolution. Azeri established businesses want to get into Armenia. Armenia needs more trading partners. Both economies and societies would benefit from having less troops. It would be great if people could travel back and forth!

Look at Germany. It did terrible things during WWII, right? Does France, today, still hold a grudge against Germany for occupying it? Obviously the Armenian-Azeri issue is a bit more complicated, with the Armenian sentiment against Turkey and Azeribaijan and Turkey’s relationship. But I hope that at some people the countries can collaborate again. Older people that I’ve talked to here remember going to Armenia during Soviet times and enjoying it.

We all need to ask if long-term, having a chunk of Armenia in the middle of another country is a good idea, but for the shorter long-term, it seems to be alright.

Do I think that this will happen soon? Who knows. But I remain positive.

Parliament speaker, Artur Baghdasarian, has succeeded in forcing the RA government to compensate citizens whose Soviet-era savings bank deposits were wiped out by hyperinflation of the early 1990s. The elderly, of course, were most affected by the inflation and many still remain in poverty. Artur B. is smart! Those elderly are sure to vote for him now, as he is one of the shining stars of the pack of contenders for the next President of Armenia.

The amount promised is certainly less than the true amount held by private citizens, but in today’s economy, why look a gift horse in the mouth?

Some have said that this is a serious waste of precious funds and other blocs have blocked the many bills related to this issue. But Artur has seemed to have cut a deal and the reimbursement is back on the table.

He and his party, The Country of Law, promised as much in the parliamentary campaign in 2003, leading to their success in holding a large amount of power in the parliament. Delivering is sure to bolter Artur in the eyes of many.

Jamestown article

Cross-posted at neweurasia.

Today’s Washington Times has an article that, in my view, does a pretty good job of summing up the current situation in Armenia. Michael Mainville seems to have done a bit of research.

Highlights include:

- Kond
- US assistance
- Kocharyan
- out-migration
- opposition groups
- possibility of revolution
- chance for democracy

It isn’t complete, but if one was trying to summarize in 1000 words what’s happening in Armenia in 2005 without going into too much detail, this would be it. This is the type of article I send my parents to help them understand.

Here’s another link to the story, in case the original doesn’t work.

School isn’t cheap. Kids have to buy notebooks, books, pencils, not to mention gifts for teachers on the first day, or at least they do in Armenia. In the U.S., at least, kids don’t have to buy anything other than the clothes on their back for school. (Not that I am defending the American education system, but just for comparison…)

While organizations like Orran try to help kids in Yerevan pull together these resources, not all kids are as fortunate.

ArmeniaNow covers this topic this week.

Even during the harsh years of the early ‘90s, school attendance was at 97 percent. Now, however, according to Human Poverty Study, the number is only 77 percent.

In an effort to curb the trend, this year the Ministry of Labor and Social Issues of RA has implemented a new program in which socially-vulnerable families who have children attending the first grade can apply for a one time help of 20,000 drams (about $44).

If these kids aren’t paid for now, the country is going to pay for them later…

John Hughes has a great article today at ArmeniaNow, so I thought I’d post the whole thing:

I have a friend who is a teacher. She teaches at one of the most prestigious universities in Yerevan. Students in fine clothes and fancy cars with cell phones and suntans from holidays on foreign beaches returned to the school yesterday to start another year.

She teaches a foreign language there. Her expertise, passed on, is a ticket for the ones who apply it to get the best jobs in this country of rare best jobs.

If they care about their financial future, they will not choose the profession the teacher has chosen.

She is a fulltime university professor and she makes about $70 a month. She spends about $10 of that each month riding a bus to the university. She lives in the suburbs. A person with her salary can’t afford an apartment in the center.

She has a son. Thursday was his first day of school.

Earlier in the week, like thousands of mothers in this city, she went shopping for school things for the boy.

She dressed him in a new suit. It cost $15

She bought him new shoes. They cost $10

She bought a new shirt, $5. And a new tie, $2.

She took him for a haircut. It cost $1.50.

She bought notebooks, a book bag, pencils, pens. The cost was about $11.

It cost the teacher nearly a month’s salary to properly send her boy off for his first school day.

The teacher started her new school year this week too, with eight groups of 20 students each. 160 students; about 85 cents per student per month. She will spend 64 hours a month with them. She will make $1.09 per hour, not including preparation time.

Other teachers in Armenia make even less.

If my friend were a math teacher, I’d ask her to explain to me how those numbers add up to anything that makes sense.

Am I A Pundit Now? has a Carnival of Revolutions up!

Via Oneworld, Hetq reports that the plans for the homeless shelter in Yerevan have been pushed back another year. As Onnik has covered, many homeless individuals died last year although he and other interested parties actively called for help. The government is looking for financial support and contact information is on Hetq’s site.

WELCOME TO THE CARNIVAL OF REVOLUTIONS, the blogosphere’s weekly roundup of news related to the global struggle for democracy and freedom.

First, some advice to our revolutionaries out there: Revolution is not a onetime event. - Audre Lorde

And second, some advice to those who oppose: Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable. - John F. Kennedy, 1962

And finally, seeing as this is a carnival, Democracy is the art of running the circus from the monkey cage. - H. L. Mencken

On with the show!

The three most important sources for the world of revolutions must be, IMHO: Gateway Pundit, Publius Pundit, and Global Voices Online. Thanks to all three for constant inspiration.

A few general links:

As a start, the Foreign Policy Institute released its Failed States Index this week.

What are the clearest early warning signs of a failing state? Among the 12 indicators we use, two consistently rank near the top. Uneven development is high in almost all the states in the index, suggesting that inequality within states—and not merely poverty—increases instability. Criminalization or delegitimization of the state, which occurs when state institutions are regarded as corrupt, illegal, or ineffective, also figured prominently. Facing this condition, people often shift their allegiances to other leaders—opposition parties, warlords, ethnic nationalists, clergy, or rebel forces. Demographic factors, especially population pressures stemming from refugees, internally displaced populations, and environmental degradation, are also found in most at-risk countries, as are consistent human rights violations. Identifying the signs of state failure is easier than crafting solutions, but pinpointing where state collapse is likely is a necessary first step.

And IEFS has a useful Election Watch reference page.

Some elections to keep your eyes on in the next month:
Burundi Presidential Aug 19, 2005
Singapore Presidential Aug 2005
Egypt Presidential (First Round) Sept 7, 2005
Egypt Presidential (Second Round) Sept 17, 2005
Afghanistan Parliamentary Sept 18, 2005
more…

Interesting - here’s a list of the percentage of below-poverty-line citizens ranked. Poverty-line levels vary by country.

http://coo-coo-corner.blogspot.com/2005/08/worlds-poorest.html