You may or may not be aware that I have not posted here in a while. I just thought I’d pass some reflection on what has happened in Armenia over the past few days. Forgive me for the emotive nature of this post, but I’d appreciate anyone elses thoughts. I realise the elections were not perfect, but if this has shown anything, it has shown that stability is indeed what we need for Armenia at this time.

I arrived home from work at a bar at about 3am UK time, BBC News 24 was on the TV, I cast my eyes over to see a burning car, gunshots and/or petrol bombs. I had to shake some sense into myself as I couldnt believe that the caption underneath read “State of Emergency Declared in Armenia”. What an incredible sinking feeling, I don’t think I will forget that.

OK, so we see this all the time. We see it in Paris, we see it in Palestine, we see it in Iraq, Georgia, and (often with a quiet shake of the head) we see it in Turkey. Usually, the inbuilt Armenian arrogance kicks in and I shake my head and say to myself ‘whatever Armenia is, this wouldn’t happen there ‘… Now I guess I don’t have that safety net. It does happen there, and it makes me feel utterly sick.

Perhaps it’s because I have held Armenia, and Armenians up on a pedestal for far too long. We are just like anyone else, we do eat , and go to the toilet like any other race. We have criminals, and we have riots, we have drug addicts, and we have alchoholics.

What I can’t accept is the thought of Armenians fighting each other. It just doesn’t work for me. It hurts, it’s like watching two members of your family hitting each other. It just shouldn’t happen, it makes you want to look away.

It hurts to see soldiers who have worked to protect what we value and boast about so greatly, just attacked by drunks or brainwashed civilians lulled into a false sense of “revolution”.

It hurts to see the city which we have watched grow and develop into a pleasant, safe environment to be left so bruised and tattered.

To the average European watching the news, we are just another backward, ‘revolution’ driven former Soviet republic, that still cannot understand the concept of an election.

It hurts because we always managed to stay away from this, and it hurts even more that I , and many other Armenians around the world, feel helpless to stop it.

AP: A senior U.S. State Department official is on his way to Armenia to encourage talks between the government and opposition protesters. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza’s trip comes after Armenian President Robert Kocharian declared the 20-day state of emergency Saturday.

A U.S. State Department spokesman, Tom Casey, says that the United States does not want to signal that it supports a crackdown, but also does not want «people to move from peaceful expressions of political opinions and engage in violence.»

Armenia’s main opposition group and the government are unlikely to start negotiations soon to end a standoff which triggered rioting that killed eight people,a European envoy said on Monday after he met both parties.
“In all likeliness this kind of dialogue between Ter-Petrosyan and the government at the moment is not possible,” Heikki Talvitie, a special envoy for the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), told reporters after being asked if the two sides would start negotiations. “But let’s not exclude it from the future,” he added.

AFP: France called today, Monday, for the “rapid lifting” of the state of emergency in Armenia, the “release of people who have been arrested” and the launch of political dialogue to end the violence that left eight people dead in Yerevan at the weekend.
“We ask for a rapid lifting of the state of emergency and the release of the people who have been arrested,” said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Pascale Andreani.

“The violence and attacks on individual freedoms must stop,” she stressed, asking “the authorities and all Armenia’s political forces to launch a political dialogue to promote a democratic process that will enable a lasting return to stability in the country”.

Two pro-opposition Armenian lawmakers have been arrested for allegedly attempting a coup d’etat following violent clashes in the ex-Soviet country that left eight dead, police said Monday. Deputy Miasnik Malkhasian was arrested for “attempting to seize
power,” the press service of the Armenian police told AFP. A source in the security services said that deputy Hakob Hokopian was arrested on the same charge. The two were arrested overnight Sunday, police said.
The opposition immediately denounced the arrests. “This is a new step in the violence the authorities are using against the opposition to deprive it of its leadership,” said Arman Musinian, a spokesman for opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosian.

The United Nations human rights chief today voiced deep concern at reports that at least eight people have been killed and many others injured during demonstrations in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, where the results of recent presidential elections have been disputed.

Louise Arbour, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, issued a statement in which she said she was particularly concerned that force was used against peaceful demonstrators yesterday and that opposition protesters have been detained.

Levon Ter-Petrosian said on Sunday the opposition may now seek to organise protests outside the capital, where emergency rule is not in effect. “We might organise demonstrations in other cities not far away from Yerevan, it would be legal,” he told reporters in his home.
Ter-Petrosian blamed authorities for provoking the unrest and criticised foreign observers for backing the elections. “Until the attack in front of the opera everything was peaceful … But if you had been hit on the head there, at the next demonstration you would grab a rod to defend yourself. “I hope the international community understands that the regime in Armenia does not have the support of the people. This conflict will now last five years, with full-time violence.”

AFP: Army chief of staff Seiran Oganian warned in televised comments that fresh protests would be met with “a severe response.”

meanwhile The city was relatively calm on Sunday and shops and cafes around Yerevan were open as residents examined the damage. Dozens of burnt-out cars, stones and metal poles from the night of violence were cleared from the streets.

Itar-Tass: Armenian authorities are determined to prosecute the organizers of the Yerevan disturbances, head of the presidential office Armen Gevorkian said on Sunday.
Gevorkian told the diplomats about the Yerevan situation and explained reasons for the current state of emergency. He said authorities had taken legitimate measures to restore law and order.

Wow,Finally Their patience ended. I think they were waiting for Arthur’s return to the government. Armenia liberty also says Levon is under house arrest which if true isn’t surprising.
Artmika in his weblog follows the news. Armenian observer also has a post about it,there are always interesting comments.

Update 1: Seems A1+ building is being surrounded by police forces.

Update 2: ItarTass: The opposition will use all legal means to continue the struggle against Armenia’s authorities, first Armenian president Levon Ter-Petrosyan said. He said opposition had warned ambassadors of EU countries and the U.S. ambassador about the events in Yerevan.

Videos like this and this , are the most disturbing ones i have seen recently. Armenia, for sure has a very very long way toward democracy and I do not know who is going to lead us to that path. I don’t see any of the current major political forces capable of doing so. They are actually the same,just in the opposite direction.
more…

Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian won Armenia’s presidential election in a first round Tuesday with 57.1 percent of the vote, according to an exit poll commissioned by Armenian Public Television.
The leading opposition candidate, former president Levon Ter-Petrosian, came in second place with 17.4 percent while Artur Baghdasarian came in third with 14.6 percent, according to the poll.
Even before polls closed, Ter-Petrosian’s campaign team decried the vote as a fraud and called for a mass rally in Yerevan on Wednesday.

I’ve been following news on coming presidential election in Armenia. I have no vote and do not have a favorite also. From one point, I think presence of former president is good, because it has shaken things, people.
more…

Nareg at Cilicia.com has posted a blog about his experience as an election observer. He said that everything went “so smoothly..”

“Well, it was awfully tiring, but I have to say I was terribly impressed, and felt proud, because, before going in as an observer, I was expecting to see the most khaydarag, utterly ridiculous things as usual, ”

I guess I am proud too, it is nice to see from someone on the ground that they were so impressed with the conduct of the elections. I hope this will set a standard for future elections, and the Presidential election imparticular.

Armenialiberty.org reports on the first conclusions from Western observers were released today, by the Council for Europe and the OSCE monitoring commission. They stated that the Armenian elections were “largely democratic” and a “step forward”. They did, however, state that they did fall short of the authorities’ promise that they would be fully democratic, citing the fact that the counting process had problems in about 20% of polling stations. They also witnessed bussing of voters to the polling stations, and some ballot stuffing.

Largely however, I think we could say this is a significant improvement. Serge Sargsyan and his Republican Party won a landslide victory, I guess given the opposition on offer, we couldn’t expect much else.

They are also saying that the faults that were recorded will not affect the outcome of the election. So all in all, I guess we have another five years of the same….?

I am keeping tabs on international news, and the first tv channel to report from outside was the “Al Jazeera” English network. The elections have been running on most news channels’ “tickers” all day, but Al Jazeera ran pictures and commentary first.

I am paraphrasing quotes from the report:

“Armenians are going to the polls today…” , “Pro Government parties are expected to sweep the elections”.. “There are fears of vote rigging…none of the elections so far have been deemed fair”

Not much in the way of information, but the word “sweep” is a strong one. Reuters are covering the events, so I assume this is where the footage is coming from.

Of course Armenian Public television is reporting the elections as having “no violations” yet. Everything is rosy in the land of H1.

OK, So on the eve of the Armenian Parliamentary elections, I am sat here, in my relative comfort of the “western world”, in a nation with strong traditions of Democracy, free elections are taken for granted here in the UK, and I must admit, in our recent local elections, I didn’t vote. Mainly because I didn’t have my ballot paper at my University address, my fault entirely…

Anyway, many would say it’s very very wrong of me to be more concerned about Armenia’s election, but I am, I can’t help it, every Armenian knows this could change Armenia over the next few years, and who knows, if I did ever live in Armenia, these results could determine who my own government will be…

So here are my (subjective, and personal) predictions, please feel free to challenge and debate them, everyone has their own feelings on this!

Serge Sargsyan, and the Republican Party, will take an overall victory. I think the vast number of civil servants, and easily scared citizens may well end up giving their votes to this party, as well as a significant number of people who believe in their policy, and their supporters of course.

Next in line I think will be the Prosperous Armenia party, their strong financial backing and support of the President would not have been invested had they not been in line for a victorious finale.

In terms of opposition, as my colleague noted, the strength of feeling towards the opposition is heightened, and I think many of these anger votes will go to Artur Baghdasaryan’s “Country of Law” party. His credibility has recently increased following a government attempt to accuse him of treason by taping a conversation he had with a British Diplomat, asking if they could condemn the elections before election day. What the authorities failed to realise is that when President Kocharyan accuses someone of being a traitor, the public don’t believe him.

The votes will be followed next in line by Raffi Hovhanissian and “Heritage” party .

I think we will be greeted by a pre written, highly predictable speech from Mr Serge Sargsyan, probably commenting on his party’s strong traditions of running Government, and the people choosing the right leaders. Similar speeches can be expected from Bargavach Hayastan. Will they be fraudulent? It’s not for me to say, but with the authorities getting worried, we may see more than expected, but I still don’t think it’ll be enough for the international community to condemn them, and I think the Millennium Challenge money will remain safe.

As for Opposition Protests? A lot may depend on the leaders of the opposition and how they feel about the conduct of the election, but by the look of things, people are ready to take to the streets.

All this said, I dearly hope for clean elections tommorow, so that people in Armenia can at least have some faith restored. I Hope tommorow is something we can be proud of, and feel confident in the figures chosen to lead the country.

We’ll see tommorow.

Gagik Tsarukyan’s “Prosperous Armenia” party clearly used his economic might to create a shining advert, infact one of the most inspiring political ads I have ever seen. With people going up in planes, flying over Armenia and sprinkling “prosperous dust” , watching as kind Mr Tsarukyan hugs kids. Clips from scientific institutions, and clips of the people turning over a new page in a giant history book. As well as a picture of skyscrapers appearing in Yerevan’s skyline ( probably as he is building most of them)

Really, what is Armenia when Gagik Tsarukyan is being overlayed with a picture of the bible. Set to a romantic song sang by popstars, this was really inspiring, but what was saddest is that it is created off the back of very shady means.

So the campaign season has kicked off, and as planned, the state television “H1″ has been providing 1 hours worth of advertisements daily. Each party gets 2 minutes free, but some are paying for more.

While I am not commenting on the content of the party manifestos, or endorsing anyone, I am simply going to make some notes on what I’ve seen and thought since watching them today.

Hopefully I’ll be able to post the adverts on youtube soon for our readers to see.

As per usual, the parties seem to be focusing far more on their leaders, pictures of them smiling, doing nice things in villages - and with little mention of actual party politics, this is common even in the UK though. My favourite so far has been the “Orinats Erkir” party, which recorded a remake of the Forsh song “Henc Ayspes El Aprum Enq”, and included clips of “workers” , “Teachers” and “businessmen” who all wanted to live in a country of law.

Raffi Hovhanissyan’s Heritage Party showed clips from it’s rally in a hotel, where Arto Tunjboyadjyan arrived with his band to sing for the crowd. I was surprised to see him mixing up in politics. Raffi’s team was pretty good, and included Larisa Alaverdyan, the first Armenian Human Rights Defender, who strongly criticised the authorities for the human rights record.

By far the sickliest was Tigran Karapetyan’s , “People’s Party” , it basically consisted with glorifying pictures of himself in church, then a blatant advertisement for his “ALM” tv company, showing clips of him taking a quality award in London. Quality for what, I wonder, as ALM tv is possibly one of the most harrowing things you may ever see.

I also found Aram Karapetyan’s “New Time’s” speech quite interesting, he has decided to use his free 2 minutes exposing the “irregularities” within various figures of the government. Very brave, if anything. Today he spoke about General Prosecutor Aghvan Hovsepyan and his bribes recieved from various oligarchs.

The “Impeachment” alliance directly attacks Kocharyan, Serj Sargsyan, and Gagik Tsarukyan, with pictures of them, and then a big red line through their faces, with a caption “Impeachment”.

Anyway, I appreciate these are hard to imagine without seeing the footage, but I will try to get some up soon. Still the problem remains that even the opposition parties are not convincing enough to make me feel that they could achieve much. Perhaps based on adverts, Orinats Yerkir showed the most promise, but we all know that means nothing until we see results.

Our Armenian Citizens certainly have a difficult decision to make.

Armenianow.com had an interesting article “Present and Future Power Debate: Who will be the choices in 2008?” which examines the possible scenarios of political developments, probable candidates and the effects of these decisions on the political life in the country. However, all the arguments brought to and for this or that candidate in the article are most irrelevent to see the overall picture in the country. The one and only thing that got me interested was rather this one single point made by Washington D.C./Yerevan political analyst Richard Giragosian: more…

2006 Global Integrity Report proved rather intersting. The report which places Armenia among the very week rating countries comes just a day after Armenia occupied a surprizingly high 32nd Place in World Rating of Economic Freedoms. Not to go into details about why I find the letter result so surprizingly high I’ll just link to Onnik Krikoryan’s post, where the matter is discussed at length.

As Armenia heads into the elections of May 2007, and in the context where absence of any ethical standards in government, inefficiency of the laws and practices designed to combat corruption and prevent abuses of power in the country prevail, the report by the Global Integrity undoubtedly provides information of wide public interest to Armenia.

The country uniformly ranks among countries with week and very week indicators as can be seen in the following indexes. And this time it’s not the discredited Armenian opposition speaking, but rather the results of a major investigative report released by Global Integrity, an international nonprofit organization that tracks governance and corruption trends around the world. more…