And as if to confuse matters, Chad Rogers, the Head of the National Democratic Institute in Armenia, blogs on his own site that the pro-government press are accusing NDI of being a front for the CIA and somewhat surprisingly given talk of Karapetyan being close to Moscow, that the NDI were supporting his plans for regime change in Armenia.

"According to , it is interesting that before the press conference, Mr. Karapetian met with Chad Rogers, head of the Armenian Office of the U.S. National Democratic Institute (NDI), and discussed regional and domestic political issues."

http://www.chadinarmenia.blogspot.com

Just goes to prove something that I learned long ago when trying to understand what's actually happening in Armenia. Quite simply, you can't.

Poor Chad. His reaction was pretty funny though...

You mean "WTF ??????????" or "They have also exposed our very nefarious activity of certificate presentation. Oooooh certificates..."

I think people miss an important point on Georgia and Ukraine: Saakashvili and Yuschenko enjoy Western support because they worked hard to come to power through elections (not the other way around). No matter how hard Karapetian, Sargsian Jr., Raffi H., Hovanes H., Demirchian Jr., and ANM portray themselves as pro-Western forces, the stark reality is that, unlike Saakashvili and Yuschenko, these guys lack the grassroots support and organization (and intellectual sophistication) to come to power.

All that talk of NDI carrying out sinister plots on behalf of U.S. government is bogus. As a reminder, the NDI is affiliated with the Democratic party, which cannot even win elections in their own country (let alone teach Armenians how to defeat the government).

Meanwhile, the smartest thing the opposition in Armenia could come up with is to torpedo the constitutional amendments (thus keeping Armenia a super-presidential republic with few powers for the parliament and less-than-independent judiciary). That's rich.

Chad's message to his mother made me laugh.

And btw, Aram Karapetian (or as he would say, Alam Kalapetian) is not exactly a smart person. The Armenia media is unique in that they report anything said by anyone at a press conference in Armenia, no matter how unnewsworthy, irrational, or irrelevant it may be.

What a weird dude, that Chad. Armenian government needs not to worry. With democracy workers like Chad, no opposition party can succeed.

Alam Kalapetian...

I like that. For those of you that don't know, Karapetian has a speech-impediment.

Point taken about "western-orientation" and it's a valid one. I can't see the West falling for that one either.

I also agree with you regarding the Constitution. If the ammendments are generally positive then people should vote for them rather than against -- regardless of whether they are against the Government or not.

I also think that the most important point of all has been missed. Events in Georgia and Ukraine were set in the context of flawed elections. Then this other point about external pressure comes in.

Western support was there for opposition movements in Georgia and Ukraine whereas it wasn't in Azerbaijan and Armenia. Moreover, in Armenia, it's Russian support that for now at least determines who is in power.

So, I can't see that anything will happen in Armenia in this case. If the referendum for Constitutional ammendments is falsified then perhaps but actually, I don't consider that the population understands what the Constitution is anyway and so, they are unlikely to take to the streets over such an issue.

Probably, until the next Parliamentary Elections whenever they are called, the only issue that can perhaps result in regime change is Karabagh, just as it was for LTP. Even then, any "regime change" would be internal.

Still, Karapetian is an interesting character and not least because he is a political force that nobody is too sure about -- many people refer to him as an agent of the Russian FSB while it appears that some now consider him to be an agent of the US.

Regardless, something is happening inside Armenia but I still believe it will be the next Parliamentary Elections (that will determine the outcome of the next President Elections) that will prove to be the problem.

I'm also inclined to believe that by then, unless a genuine opposition force with new leaders emerges, the most interesting battle will be between the ARF-D and the Republican Party.

Maybe people will find his speech impediment endearing.

Hi Katy, I doubt it and yes, I know we shouldn't discriminate because of such things but it is difficult to listen to anyone speaking at length at the best of times. Same with Demirchyan, btw. His nasal way of speaking is quite annoying although thankfully, he doesn't speak too much at all. In fact, there are few politicians in Armenia with good oratory skills, including the President.

That said, doesn't seem to have prevented Bush from securing a second term in the Whitehouse.

Probably, I think we need new leaders, different approaches and fresh ideas on both sides of the political fence in Armenia. I daresay, looking at the political environment in the US and UK, that the same is true there as well. Maybe the whole world is facing a leadership crisis at the beginning of the 21st Century.

I agree on the election and Western interest in Georgia and Ukraine vs. Armenia and Azerbaijan, but that's because the Western countries knew the opposition in Georgia and Ukraine - they were known quantities with decent platforms, grassroots support and (importantly) English speaking individuals who could explain themselves in public and private settings. Everyone bets on winners, hence the Western support for Saakashvili and Yuschenko.

By contrast, the opposition parties in Armenia are underdeveloped and have leaders with poor rhetorical skills, or poor understanding of the outside world. I doubt if any Western diplomat meeting with Demirchian or Karapetian came out of the meeting convinced that this was Armenia's future leader.

Re Russian intereference in Armenian politics, it's only perceived to be the key element in winning elections. The Russians have a long-standing policy of supporting and standing by the incumbents in former Soviet republics. The Russians lack the tools and political acumen to actively influence the election processes: witness the botched jobs in Abkhazia and Ukraine. Even Abkhazia, with 100% reliance on Russia and Georgia on its heels, elected a president who was not to Russia's liking initially.

Bottom line: whoever comes to power in Armenia will be acceptable to Russia. The incumbents in Armenia rig elections to stay in power and enjoy the perks of power, not to endear themselves to Russia. That said, there's a perception in Armenia that Russia can influence elections, thus you have Karapetian and a bunch of other pols who spread rumors about themselves being the Russian agents. That's servility in action.

I agree totally but couldn't have worded it as well as you. I suppose the only other factor I often wonder about is whether or not the West might actually prefer Kocharian and Aliyev jnr in power nost just because the opposition are unknown quantities and certainly not western leaning but also because the two can carry on negotiations over Karabagh. That said, one guesses that the West wouldn't be too upset if Kocharian was gone but at the very least, they know have some "leverage" as a result of the elections. This being an unfair world, Aliyev jnr can get away more lightly.

Still, the game is on but whether early Parliamentary Elections are called or not, the 2008 Presidential Elections concern me. I really don't know will stand and in particular, who will expect the Presidency regardless of whether the people want him or not.

Cheers,

Re Kocharian and Jr., that's probably true, there's no interest or awareness in the Arevmutq toward domestic politics in Armenia and Azerbaijan (otherwise Armenia wouldn't get people like Chad and NDI). There's an if-it-ain't-broke-don't-fix-it policy - as long as Kocharian and Ilham are not doing the bad things (WMD and narcotraffic), help Bush on terrorism and Iraq, and keep NK under control (and oil flowing), nobody will touch them. On the other hand, nobody will love them either. The West is actually rougher on Aliev Jr - poor guy wants to come to the White House desperately, and still can't. Must be tough.

Before the parliamentary and presidential election, there's the municipal election coming up too. Municipalities are important too, you know. (Of course they are too demeaning for our world-class political leaders. They are all born to be President of the Republic.)

Yes, the local elections are important, I think, because they will determine who controls the local levers that will allow greater control in the Parliamentary and Presidential Elections. Plus, of course, there is a great need for better local and regional management.

In the last elections, the opposition and most other parties did not even try to contest them which says something about how the system of governance is perceived in Armenia. Only the ARF-D and the Republican Party did and the former didn't have the money to compete with the latter.

This time round it will be interesting to see what happens and if friction in the ruling coalition doesn't increase as a result and especially between the ARF-D and Republican Party.

I'm especially concerned because I suppose this Hovik Abrahamyan will feature heavily in whatever happens.

BTW: When will they occur? I know they are this year but don't know when exactly.

The local polls take place on fourth Sunday in October every 3 years, I think. Definitely in October.

What about Orinats Yerkir - aren't they more successful (represented) than ARF in local and national govt?

Few seemed too concerned at the last local elections. My understanding at the time was that the Republicans were the only ones who seemed to understand the importance of the elections and swept the floor.

However, you are right, Orinats Yerkir came in a distant second and the ARF-D, third. Both of these two parties were unhappy with the Republican victory and I think we can all see why after the 2003 Parliamentary Elections.

On that basis alone with the stakes far greater in the nextParliamentary Elections, it will be interesting to see what happens this time round. I think everything can now be viewed in Armenia as leading up to the 2008 Presidential Elections.

BTW: I wonder if the opposition will bother this time around?