Matt, I always believe that the truth lies somewhere in the middle and that if I were to be forced to guestimate the population of Armenia I'd say between 2-2.5 million in the country. Reason is that the census figures sound too high and the "word on the street" is such a shock that we have to hope that it isn't true.

For sure, I know of people that have been living abroad for over 5 years who were counted in the census because they were still registered at an address in Armenia. I suppose if they haven't given up their citizenship they technically should still be counted as part of the population but obviously, it should also be pointed out that there are no longer resident.

Oh well, one day we'll really know how many people there are in Armenia and it will be interesting to look back and compare what we were told and what actually was.

Cheers,

I've heard widely ranging estimates, and the 1.5 million figure a few times. On a practical level if all those people are sending back money at least it is benefitting the economy. Armenia's best export is surely its people. Some people say that Armenia just cant support 3 million people.

Matt, the logic of your statement of course makes sense but research shows that it is precisely the people that Armenia needs to secure its future that are leaving. This spells disaster for any country. Besides, $1 billion as you quote or $500 million as the Central Bank quotes, it's actually not a lot.

For sake of argument, let's take your figure of 1.5 million (population) which of course, I hear all the time as well and take remittances at $500 million. Unless my math is wrong, that works out at $333 a person per year or under $28 a month per person.

Basically, remittances and emigration are helping Armenia survive but frustrating it's development. There can be no progress until this is reversed.

Cheers,

You are right. Aid is basically hurting Armenia. Not just aid in the form of remittances, but also aid from the World Bank, etc. This distorts the economy and hurts legitimate businesses. Would you agree?

Hi Matt,

My gut reaction about the World Bank is that their papers make interesting reading and generally their right on the mark and identifiy the problem and what needs to be done to rectify the situation. However, the problem is that there is no holistic approach, so if one paper says okay, close to the boarding schools that are attended by thousands of children from mainly vulnerable families, is there necessarily another paper or policy that is going to ensure that other support systems are going to exist to cater for those families now out on their own. I suppose you could go a bit further and just scoff at the idea of giving millions of dollars to a country in need when corruption is so prevalent that you have to question the genuine desire among many up top to change things int he country even if they had the ability.

Basically, we're in a Catch 22 situation. Armenia needs remittances from abroad but to get them, the most educated people have to leave (along with transitional manual workers) and without them there can be no normal or positive development within Armenia. Same thing with the World Bank. Is it good for Armenia to take so much money in foreign loans which it has to pay back one day (even the interest repayments have killed some countries) but is there the need for reform and change promoted by World Bank strategies? Basically, it's not good but also, yes, there's the need for reform. However, can there be any change when part of the reason for this need for huge foreign injections of cash is corruption on a massive scale and also, the less than genuine nature to change the situation in the country for the better.

I suppose the point is that yes, remittacnces from abroad and foreign loans are helping Armenia survive but little else. However, the price of that survival might have devastating consequences for the future. Here, the Diaspora could be beneficial if it spoke out as well as assisted financially. However, as with everything, there should always be accountability and transparency, the need to look ahead to making the situation self-sustainable and a certain number of goals or targets to reach to ensure that no mistakes are made along the way.

Most of all, people need to speak openly, critically and honestly about the situation and the future and until that happens, I can't see much on the horizon that fills me with much hope.

Cheers,