However, there are a few concerns regarding “charitable assistance” which still continues. For example, where did all this money come from when Tsarukian posts losses for his companies and is suspected of being either a) a front for the economic interests of others at the top of government or b) not paying his taxes, or both.

Still, for some Armenians this doesn’t matter. They think everyone is like this anyway, so here’s one who is actually giving some of it back. People don’t believe in the process of democracy building or fighting corruption in Armenia, so who can blame them.

Even so, we are not yet into campaign period and a lot could change. For one thing, Prosperous Armenia might have 370,000 members or whatever, but as some of those were forced to join in order to receive some benefit, will they all vote for them? And anyway, that’s something like 25% of the electorate even if they do.

Hell, do we know if there will be a high turnout anyway or is apathy still the prevailing force in society?

The only last point to make is this. While I agree with pretty much your reading of the situation with the exception of any sudden changes during the election period, it is widely believed that Prosperous Armenia will not be allowed to win a landslide victory.

Instead, there needs to be a balance of power in the Parliament between Prosperous Armenia (Kocharian) and Republican Party (Serzh Sarkisyan). Other parties have reportedly had their number of seats already agreed upon with Kocharian. Even one head of an international organization here says privately that this has happened.

So, what is most interesting will be to see if Prosperous Armenia and the Republican Party can keep on good terms and remember their agreement ahead of the May vote. However, there are already signs that things are getting tense, with a fight already breaking out in Erebuni district because of the huge advertising campaign launched by Tsarukian.

Anwyay, as I said, we can’t know anything for sure until the campaign period itself which (officially) starts on 8 April. Anything can happen in Armenian politics, and most probably will.

As for parties, boy, does Armenia has a lot for such a small country…

http://www.parties.am