Firstly, please accept my apologies for not posting in a while. Things have been very busy.

While one of the hottest topics at the moment seems to be the new Armenian Eurovision Song Contest entry, there is a rather more important event due to take place in May - that is the parliamentary elections. I have made a few observations, and whilst I don’t consider myself a political analyst in any sense of the word, I’d be interested to hear our readers’ opinions also.

The Justice alliance of the key opposition parties has broken down. Armenialiberty reported on March 2nd about the key parties headed by Stepan Demirchyan and Aram Sarkisian. It seems each party is interested in seeing their own candidate fronted for the presidential elections, scheduled for 2008. It is dissappointing that the members of the alliance cannot see past their own individual aspirations - however, it is also true to speculate whether an alliance that could barely keep itself together, could ever work collectively as a governmental force. Either way, it seems clear to me that there we can expect little change in Armenia’s political climate , based on a couple of strikingly obvious factors:

The Bargavach Hayastan party, headed by Gagik Tsarukyan, has ( in political terms) become an overnight success story. I remember just months after it’s launch last year , Yerevan and the regions were littered with the friendly Bargavach Hayastan logo, representing a huge array of party presence, much more than any other party. There is also the factor of the so called “vote buying” allegations - the party has been distributing seeds and other donations to the poorest villagers through Tsarukyan’s “charitable fund”. They claim this is fine, it technically is, what Tsarukyan does with his wealth is up to him - but what is unavoidable is that people will associate his name with the party, and subsequently engage in votes for him. He is widely regarded as a popular person.

It is all very, very well thought out.

So the Europeans are saying “Hey, don’t fix the elections this year please!” , and the USA is saying “Hey, we wont give you money if you fix the elections…”

So it seems the best option is to create a force that cannot be reckoned with. It’s widely known that President Kocharyan is a strong supporter of Bargavach Hayastan, and its huge popularity may well cause an upsurge of votes from the regions and Yerevan alike - the result being a landslide victory, that didn’t even need to be fixed. That way everyone is happy - and Kocharyan is likely to retain some form of power within the government.

The opposition alliance disbansion has quashed any hope for a victory of the traditional opposition parties. The only contender I could see would be the Heritage party headed by Raffi Hovhanessian. Interestingly, I saw him for the first time ever on Armenian public television this month. Obviously, he wasn’t given a voice, he was just paraphrased by the voice over. He was prevented from running in the presidential election due to problems with his citizenship. Despite his popularity, this western educated guy still hasn’t been running around the villages giving out grain to desperate citizens , and what I think this boils down to is people in desperate need of a way to keep their families together. It is absurd to speak of a true election when the population are still relying so heavily on potato seeds given by a well wisher.

It is an extreme example, but I think the only chance of huge jolt in power may be the advent of a reason for people to come together and unite against the current regime. Times of natural disaster,(God Forbid ) times of extreme need, and suchlike. The fact is, Armenia is quite happily cruising along. Perhaps when Bargavach Hayastan are in power, they can improve the situation of those people who accepted the handouts, and make them comfortable enough to vote based on policy, not charity.