Elections 2007 - Deception point
31 October, 2006 - A1Plus reports on the press conference held by Shavarsh Kocharyan, head of the National Democratic Party (NDP) board, where he claims, that the “forthcoming elections will be fabricated”.
It seems too early to start campaigning for the Parliamentary elections due in May 2007, but it has begun. Onnik Krikorian in his blog has started a very good round up on the elections 2007. So has the ArmeniaNow. Political debate is everywhere - in food and water, but what kind of a political debate is it?
There are two things wrong with Shavarsh Kocharyan’s announcement:
a) deep inside I (and most of the voters in Armenia) feel that he is speaking the obvious, and that it is the absolute truth, and that the elections WILL be fabricated;
b) this “bold” announcement sounds to me as a call for surrender; it takes away all hope, that anything can be done, and this is the worst thing an opposition leader could do to his electorate!
The political debate that is going on now is a dead end. The opposition leaders have already started looking for excuses not to loose their face in the upcoming elections, with the loss of voters. The Armenian Opposition, which has been slowly committing suicide during the last 3-4 years, has no time at all to make a shift - slightly more then 6 months - and even now, they are again and again demonstrating their lack of leadership potential.
The “wannabe winners” camp is not in peace either. The demonstration of power is going on here - and the fight between the “Bargavach Hayastan” and Republican Parties, the fight of the giants is starting to turn scary turns. The funny thing is - the incumbent president is playing on both sides of the chessboard. Prosecution of Hakob Hakobyan (”Choit”) from the Republican Party, elections of Ajapnyak Community leader ended with the victory of “Choit” Prosecutor’s brother are all minor combinations on this board.
Some like ARF or Aram Manukyan, are distancing themself from everybody, and maybe they are right to lead this double game, but the fact is - its no winner game.
Again and again I will agree to the AXIOM: these are the most important elections Armenia has ever had. And I will add to this: we the people need hope, if we are expected to vote at all - don’t take it away from us.
So - is there really hope? Yes - and I will try to prove it! So here we go:
- These are the first elections, where the President of Armenia is not on anybodies side (not yet, and he has every reason not to join any camp), and that adds a deal of surprise into the whole process.
- These are the first elections, where broadcast media is not controlled by only one political force: Republicans, ARF and Bargavach Hayastan all have their own broadcast media: (H2 - Republicans, Yerkir Media - ARF, Bargavach Hayastan - Kentron TV). Public TV of Armenia (President’s toy) - will most likely be rather balanced. As we have seen over the last decade throughout the territory of CIS - Broadcast Media gives and takes away political power in the Post-Soviet realm.
- These are the first elections where the combined effect of trying to meet the Council of Europe membership obligations and commitments and Millenium Challanges Project Eligibility Criteria; coupled with the growing discontent of the Armenian Diaspora with the downfall of democratic values in Armenia will come to action.
As we know - MCA and Diaspora mean a lot of money. And money talks - so there’s hope. There is always hope. And with hope - the Armenian People can turn around the mountains. We all know that…
EXTRACT from the ARTICLE BY NIKOLAI ZLOBIN, DIRECTOR OF THE RUSSIAN PROGRAMS AT THE WASHINGTON-BASED WORLD SECURITY INSTITUTE, ON RF-US-GEORGIA RELATIONS IZVESTIA DAILY, P. 6, OCTOBER 31, 2006
[One of the leading Armenian politicians has recently told me that neither America nor Russia should have any illusions about its influence on Armenia’s internal evolution because its priorities are determined largely by the feelings and demands of the Armenians who are scattered all over the world. In his words, these Armenians will never allow their country to turn into a totalitarian state because private money transfers (which, by the way, are as big as neighboring Azerbaijan’s earnings from the sale of its energy resources in one year) are a deciding factor in the survival of the Armenian economy. Along with the money sent to Armenia from other countries naturally come political signals that the local leadership may not ignore or it may simply lose power.]
Comment by Observer — 11/1/2006 @ 6:38 pm
Well, I kind of don’t know how to view “hope” here. Basically, Kocharian has a vested interest in these elections as does most of the money in Armenia today. Basically, we’re talking about the issue of succession in 2008 which will be determined by the parliamentary elections in May. We’re talking about the protection of assets and avoiding prosecution for crimes committed since 1998.
On the other hand, I do agree that the government forces may well splinter and squabble over these issues and along with different pro-governmental forces controlling TV, this might make the situation more “hopeful” or rather, potentially volatile. The only real problem, however, is the apathy stille vident in society and the way Prosperous Armenia is conducting itself in Armenia.
Kocharian, Serzh Sarkisyan and Dodi Gagho have a lot to lose if there are democratic elections in Armenia so maybe the question is more a) just how democratic will they allow the elections to be given all you’ve stated above, and b) are these three still inseparable or are there divisions appearing within their ranks?
Comment by Onnik Krikorian — 11/2/2006 @ 10:24 am
What are those “crimes” committed wince 1998 ?
Comment by Tim — 11/3/2006 @ 6:32 pm
I understand Onnik meant a number of high profile killings, Shahen Hovasapian’s murder this year as one of the vivid examples.
I understand attempts to control freedom of speach, establishment of unofficial censorship/self-censorship in most TV companies of Armenia. (This one is the worst crime of all if you ask me).
I understand fabrication of at least 3 election results, in 2003 and 2005.
I understand beatings of journalists and peaceful population on the central: Baghramyan avenue of Yerevan.
I understand Government working with Semi-Criminal businessmen, like - same old “Choit”.
I understand many more crimes of that sort, which might not be as obvious, but are as destructive for the development of the country as a whole.
Comment by Observer — 11/4/2006 @ 3:31 pm
Tim, go and take a look at the mansions and property owned by many senior officials, take a look at their official declarations of income which show them unable to afford such things, and then understand that there are many, many things they need to be called to account for.
Although Hakob Hakobian is probably only just a scapegoat and a political game that will probably be decided through the exchange of property, his case illustrates exactly how much is at stake — and he’s small fry compared to some. There are also others who should probably be investigated for intimidation, violence and yes, even murder.
Comment by Onnik Krikorian — 11/6/2006 @ 10:36 am
Lets put things into perspective shall we,
Mansions etc. are petty corruption, I don’t believe they are anything but unfair wealth redistribution. Look at the neighbors where georgians practice ethnic cleansings, azeris happily run a inbred dynasty, iranians that stone women and hung people for inasmuch as ‘improper’ holding of hands in public places. Should I mention turks or russians too ?
I don’t believe there are things of that magnitude in Armenia today, at least not to my knowledge. Sure, there is a bunch of opposition types ever pissed that they didn’t get a piece of pie, but who is to say that they would not behave any differently that the people who are at power today. In fact I am 110% sure they will behave exact same way, it is just a reality of the neighborhood and middle eastern mentality.
Comment by Tim — 11/9/2006 @ 8:13 pm