Country positioning is not only about economics. Economics is one of the components. You can trade even with your enemy. Thus, if you want talk economics only, don’t use sarcastic words like “Mother Russia”, “grip” etc. You want discussion about economics, (as mentioned in your text), then list pure economical arguments. Being in other geopolitical camp in the medieval time means ABSOLUTELY nothing in current economic reality, population of a country has only secondary effects on the market potential and so on.

Secondly, I think you did not understand my argument about looking forward! The point is that your great grandparents spoke Armenian, Georgian, Turkish and possibly Arabic. This is significant because those nations are growing. Do you disagree that Russia is dying and in the next 40 years will loose prominence as a world power economically. Look at the numbers and trends. You can see that the Kremlin is obviously worried. Odds are between AIDS and a low birth rate, Russia will go from a small population of 145 million people to 60 million. That is a big contraction of a market in two generations.

With Russia dying and becoming even more nationalistic (reference the number of people killed because they are not of Russian heritage living on Russian soil), the population will shrink. With business people in thier 20s and 30s, they must reference the future and the future markets are to the east, west and south. The north will be a contracting market.

Hayastansti, I understand your political argument but as Russia looses her power Armenia must look to increase its economy so that regionally it is secure and safe and not looking to “Mother Russia” or “Uncle Sam” to support her. In short, you do not want to be in the position that Israel is in economically and politicially being tied to America.

I would like to hear your point of view but please be sure to reference the base materials on which I base my argument.

Armenian industry is so small it isn’t even a blip on a radar screen of Iran and Turkey. The only things that are working in Armenia today are things connected to diaspora, tourism/hospitality/financial services and the construciton started to pick up due to the expats purchasing vacation and 2nd homes. This is per my personal observations, perhaps you have access to some other data that I am not aware of.

Russia dying talk etc., to quote Mark Twain, “The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated” They are developing pretty nicely, all things considered, even if they shrink a bit so what’s the big deal? Both Iran and Turkey have very uncertain future in front of them, Iran ran by mullahs and lunatics, and Turkey with its inferiority complexes where it is felony to question ones turkishnes.
The fact that there will be more turks in the world in 20 years is not a good news at all, instead of thinking what to export to them we should be worrying at how to defend ourselves when they come of age.

History repeats itself, and those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. — George Santayana

I don’t deny Russian imperialism, yet I also believe in Russian internationalism. Nationalistic movements in Russia are explained by i) weak socio-economic situation and ii) reaction to growing number of illegal immigrants.

I see Armenia future in continuing efforts to become member of the gentile society. Diversity of economic relations should not be attained at a cost of worsening relations with Russia, being one of our bridges to the integration. I doubt that Middle East in general and Turkey and Iran in particular would provide a sound leadership to Armenia in this respect.

And again, I consider demographic data as only secondary for shaping of economic policy.

Also, Tim you give the Diaspora to much credit. Your over arching statement is simply false especially outside of Yerevan. As I travel around rural Armenia, I see the tourist visiting the vanks but I do not see the Diaspora taking the risk in the Tavush or Gegharkunik Regions. They are happy to buy Areni wine but not invest in businesses in Vayots Dzor Region. The only place we see much outside investment is the Gyumri and Vandazor areas. There are many reasons for this which we will explore in a later article and I do not wish to discuss in a comment section.

Tim, if we wish to hold onto the statement, “..we should be worrying at how to defend ourselves as they come of age.” Armenia will end in a couple generations. You might as well right off 3000 years of history. It is only through the warefare of the future which is economic that Armenia will be able to win the war and set the history.

Tim, I do appreciate your view point and thanks for sharing it! It is great to have a little debate!

On to my favorite, quotes! Here are a few I use with my advisement:

“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” - Alan Kay

“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.” - Eleanor Roosevelt

A quote to illistrate what we musn’t do:
“The world is full of people whose notion of a satisfactory future is, in fact, a return to an idealised past.” - Robertson Davies

Hayastansi, thanks for sharing your ideas but what I am struggling with is how do we ensure a brighter future for the people living outside the center of Yerevan? I understand you want to make policy decisions on more than demographic data but tell me how Armenia’s economy will continue to expand and develop. Not every Armenian will be able to work in IT and export thier work abroad. Please help me understand by articulating how the future shall be created. If you offer me solid ideas, I can use them as I work with the business people all over rural Armenia to improve thier outlook and understanding of the next 40 years. Looking forward to your articulation!