Ian Bremmer has an article in Slate today that covers “nonrevolutions” and why they matter.

But a nonrevolution sometimes matters, too, particularly when it uncovers previously hidden political and social instability and poses problems for the future of a volatile region.

How come?

Still, the absence of revolution does not mean that the two states are equally stable or that what happened doesn’t matter. While Nursultan Nazarbayev’s Kazakh government remains as well-entrenched after the election as it was before, Ilham Aliyev’s Azerbaijan may now face a newly radicalized and disruptive opposition.

So why didn’t Kazakhstan or Azerbaijan have a revolution? Bremmer says because of one thing: oil! (and therefore money!)

Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan, the three countries have something very basic in common: They all lack the oil and gas revenues that have stabilized Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

Remember back in November when I was floored with the stability and prosperity in AZ?

Bremmer makes a good point:

That income matters enormously. In states that enjoy substantial energy wealth, some of the revenues trickle down to key segments of the citizenry and enhance quality of life. True, the benefits are unevenly distributed. But the extra income these governments receive ensures that elites have the resources to buy off key individuals and groups—and to better finance the use of oppression where necessary. The ruling regimes in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have experienced all these benefits.

Those key segments matter A LOT!

Bremmer goes into the Azerbaijani opposition and their interested in the NK settlement or lack thereof.

He says that the main opposition group, Azadlyg, is going to change tactics “because the Azerbaijani government rigged the elections to limit those gains and the United States has refused to become directly involved.” He thinks that they are going to try to screw up the NK resolution.

Aliyev knows that the various opposition parties can win increased popular support by playing on nationalist resistance to compromise on the issue, thereby blocking his efforts to improve Azerbaijan’s standing in the region and his own international reputation.

So, Armenia, without any of this oil money? Will it have a revolution, according to Bremmer’s theory? It remains to be seen.