Referendum Results
According to PanArmenian.net, with 1901 out of 1922 precincts processed, the Central Electoral Commission reports that the turnout in the referendum was 65%, and over 93% voted for the Constitutional referendum.
This is of course the most lopsided poll result ever in Armenia’s post-independence history. Very curious results. Equally (but positively) surprising is the amazing speed with which the results were posted by the CEC.
The opposition (which boycotted the vote and gave up its right to monitor the vote through precinct commissions) suggests that the turnout is heavily inflated. According to PanArmenian.net:
According to the Public Information Center of the United Opposition, as of 8:00 p.m. local time 374667 constituents have voted throughout the territory of Armenia, which makes 16.3% of the total number of electors. «The referendum is not legitimate and constitutional amendments were not passed, If the authorities cannot normally and legitimately organize a process, there is no choice except revolution» New Times opposition party leader Aram Karapetyan said during a news conference in Yerevan today, in which leaders of united opposition parties also took part.
The protest rally/civic forum called by Armenia’s popular opposition leaders Aram Sargsian and Raffi Hovannisian (among others) brought together about 1200 people, and had to disperse for lack of momentum (and lack of support from popular opposition leaders Stepan Demirchian and Artashes Geghamian). We are assured that Monday will be (another) decisive day for the opposition.
The most curious comment, however, came from Turkey where one of the newspaper bemoaned the removal of ban on dual citizenship which will give ‘evil Diaspora’ more leeway in Armenian politics.
Things to watch for today: the turnout at the opposition rally; the statements by the U.S. and PACE; who will take credit for the Yes victory and how.
From what we saw on the ground, apart from a few precincts which had tables with food and drink laid out for those that voted, as well as a few were there *might* have been vote bribes going round, the polling stations were virtually deserted yet the ballot boxes were mysteriously full. I saw this in Ararat and Armavir, and others saw it in Aragatsotn and Yerevan.
However, this can not be taken as voters necessarily boycotting the vote because of the opposition, but more the lack of interest in, or understanding of, the constitution.
For your information, however, Demirchyan and Hovannisian were strangely absent from an opposition press conference last night, and few are expecting anything to happen. BUT NOT because of a lack of support, but because nobody cares about the constitution and the vote.
Comment by Onnik Krikorian — 11/28/2005 @ 9:47 am
This election was pure fraud-crime. Shame on “number/percent painters” and their supporters. Its a regress from civilised elections. Very pity.
Comment by journalist — 11/28/2005 @ 3:43 pm
Onnik, can you clarify what “tables with food and drink laid out for those that voted” means exactly? Does it mean that everyone that voted (a certain way) got a chicken and a bottle of wine? Does it mean a snak for those voted (sort of hey, thanks for coming out to vote, type thing)? Was food used to “bribe”?
Comment by Roupen N. — 11/28/2005 @ 5:22 pm
I guess we couldnt have expected anything to be done correctly.
Comment by Harmick — 11/28/2005 @ 5:29 pm
Ruben, I’m not entirely sure that elections should be held with tables of food and drink laid out INSIDE polling stations in villages is particularly welcomed and is actually pitiful. However, I also didn’t see anyone at those tables inside the stations so it didn’t work. On the other hand, there were people receiving their food and drink at feasts outside Ayo campaign HQ’s in Kharberd and Massis. Even so, there were few in attendance.
Anyway, this is not the point. What is, is that it would appear that around 20 percent of Armenians turned out to vote, and that the government grossly inflated the figures through ballot box stuffing and a general playing with the figures.
Still, there will be a new constitution in force in 2 years, it won’t work of course unless society demands that it does (unlikely given apathy towards the contract between state and its citizens), and the opposition are impotent and incompetent. A sad time for democracy in Armenia, but it has to be said, everyone is too blame.
Comment by Onnik Krikorian — 11/28/2005 @ 6:00 pm
BTW: CE has issued its statement on the referendum
http://oneworld.blogsome.com/2005/11/28/council-of-europe-referendum-observation-mission-statement/
Comment by Onnik Krikorian — 11/28/2005 @ 6:01 pm
It is unfortunate to see how the people’s spirit got killed during the last 10 years. I remember the enthusiasm and optimism of people voting YES for the Constitution. Now, I hear from the regions that people didn’t bother to go and vote not because they were boycotting it but because they have grown used to bribes and personal favors during parliamentary and local electioins.
No personal gain, no voting. It is so sad:-(
Comment by Nanul — 11/29/2005 @ 2:41 am
Another rigged election by the illigitimate Armenian authorities. This one is very laughable. What kind of authorities say there was 65% turnout in a referendum when there were so little people voting? Corrupt authorities following the orders of a dictator, that’s the answer. We Armenians see Armenian history as one of the longest and proudest in the world. However, the dictator of Armenia has put a stain on that history that will be very difficult repair. The country is a slump, elections have been falsified, economic indicators have been exagerated, free media has been closed down, and the rights of human beings is violated daily. Is this the result of a long and proud 3000 year history? Unfortunately, I do not see a revolution. The opposition is weak with no clear leader and the Armenian people are too tired to care. All the sane minded Armenians the world over will keep asking, when will it end? When will it end?
Comment by Roders Shagvaladyan — 11/29/2005 @ 4:11 am
While I wait to make up my judgment with regards to manner in which this latest referendum was conducted, the opposition has yet to prove that they should be entrusted with the helm of the country…
The Armenian government may have missed yet another chance to become more democratic, and deepen the liberal values and policies that we have discovered since gaining independence, but this does not justify revolution… And I genuinely believe that the wise citizens of Armenia recognize this fact… Apathy and passivity could be read from many angles, chief among them is sense of carelessness, but let’s not forget that carelessness — in its turn — could also be born out of a mature understanding of the realities at hand… The delicate balancing act that Armenians of Armenia are involved with everyday
Government rarely acts in manner that is inimical to its interests… that is if they are left alone to act in manner of their choosing. Sadly, Armenia’s government acts in anyway they choose, due to, the already well established fact of, not being opposed… And one of the reasons that the government is not being opposed is because people don’t give mandate to the current opposition… And reasons for this are plenty, but generally it is because the opposition offers no real alternative for the average Armenian.
Many legitimate questions could be raised about the issue of alternative policy and honest people can disagree about the prescribed solutions but until such issues are discussed and rigorously debated the wise men and women of Armenia cannot be asked to undertake revolution or to show a much greater degree of awareness to the political realities in our Homeland. And with this, allow me to move to my final point, which is the issue of the opposition boycotting the government…
As we know, the opposition has not partaken in the parliamentary sessions and they opposed the current referendum mainly on the rational that if they endorsed the proposed reforms, they are legitimizing the government that has offered those reforms… While this is a very valid and logical sentiment, it lacks one essential element. In order for the opposition to successfully paint the ruling administration as illegitimate, it itself has to be regarded as legitimate and worthy of being a candidate for choice. And, as I mentioned earlier, the current opposition is not regarded as worthy of a candidate. This fact is overlooked by the current opposition… And thus my suggestion would be for it to cease the boycott and re-engage itself into the debate by participating in the parliamentary sessions and attempting to remedy its grievances through the democratic process… Let me just emphasize the fact that I don’t think I’m being naïve in suggesting this; I’m sufficiently sensitive towards these issues but at the end of the day we have to come to the terms… One cannot keep calling for revolution when his rallies are attended by less than 1000 people on its best days and the average age of the participant is probably somewhere in the vicinity of 55…
Comment by Levon — 11/29/2005 @ 6:57 am
U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs have issued a few bullet points:
No kidding…
http://www.usa.am/news/2005/november/news112905.html
Comment by Onnik Krikorian — 11/29/2005 @ 12:28 pm
Yeah, the murderous clan has rigged another election in Armenia. With the outrageous help of the West! If we believe the clan, we’ve had one of the highest turnouts in our history, despite the empty polls. How ridiculous and ironic.
Comment by H. Hovsepian — 11/29/2005 @ 12:41 pm
Someone mentioned the 1995 referendum. That one was rigged in a crude manner as well (voting was arbitrarily extended by two hours during which 600,000 voters managed to vote). Nevertheless, 10 years later everyone seems happy to live by that Constitution, and some are fighting tooth and nail to keep it.
As it is, the Constitution is amended, and there’s a new era in Armenian politics. End of story, ironic or not. The 2007 electoral season starts now.
Comment by Hovakim — 11/29/2005 @ 4:39 pm
I am very happy that the amendments passed and the anti-Armenian HHSh constitution of 1995 is almost void.
I don’t care if a President of Armenia is democratic or no at this stage of Armenian history. I only care if he is in full control or not. Robert Kocharian is fully in control and I sincerely wish that he continues on after 2008 to be Prime Minister of Armenia.
And the opposition including Raffi Hovhannisian? I REALLY have to laugh . They offer no alternative even as village mayors. But I am sure Onnik Krikorian who is well on his way to fix things in Armenia with his “journalism” will not like this comment.
Comment by Armen Sinanian — 11/29/2005 @ 5:48 pm
I disagree that anybody is living by the 1995 constitution — it means nothing to them, which is why so few turned out to vote for or against the amendments. The same will be true for the amended version once it is adopted in 2 years time or whenever unless people start to fight for their rights and stand up to successive corrupt and draconian governments. Otherwise, I agree that the 2007 campaiging starts now.
Comment by Onnik Krikorian — 11/29/2005 @ 6:06 pm
It is quite pathetic to see the constant stupid performances in the Opera square to prevent the opposition from having the traditional place of protest. The opposition protest turnout is also pathetic of course, but not surprising to me.
The question that I haven’t figured out the answer to is why the government bothered to push these changes through in this way? You’d think they had something massive to gain. Am I missing something? I just don’t see their gain…
Comment by Raffi Kojian — 11/29/2005 @ 10:30 pm
There is some speculation, but we’re not sure, really. Some people consider that the new constitution is necessary for a peace deal because it allows the president to change the borders of Armenia without consulting the public, and at the same time can secure immunity from prosecution when he leaves office. According to some analysts, a concessionary peace deal is certain for 2006. Others still think that it’s possible Kocharian might yet try to get a ruling from the constitutional court than an amended constitution means the two term limit counter gets reset to zero. Or, of course, the pressure from Europe to pass this was too great. Certainly, Kocharian has no interest in building a democratic state and relinquishing some of his power. There’s something else to it, but we don’t know what. Time will tell.
Comment by Onnik Krikorian — 11/29/2005 @ 10:36 pm
Today, Armenia is technically a lawless state. No constitution is enforced in Armenia. Not the 1995 consititution , and definetely, not this new version, which is illigitimate. Only wills are enforced in the Republic of Armenia. The wills of dictators, clans, gangsters, criminals etc.
Any suggestions that Armenia is not ready for a revolution is false and crazy. All neccessary facts are there for a revolution. 90% of Armenia is ready for a revolution but they need good leaders they can count on. One thing the dictator of Armenia deserves credit for is that he has established complete control of the security apparatus. The army, special forces, and police forces completely follow the dictator’s orders. They have great intimidation skills as well in order to keep the population in check. Arresting, torturing, threatening, closing all roads to Yerevan, breaking up rallies. Etc. This, along with a weak opposition is why this illigitimate government is in power.
Comment by Roders Shagvaladyan — 11/29/2005 @ 10:38 pm
For Armen, Love your comment, darling. Cracked me up, in fact, especially as somewhat ironically, the amendments if functioning should take some power away from the President which at some point will probably result in a more unstable political system within the parliament and government. Of course, it won’t work unless people make it work, and even more ironically, the West know has the means to use the falsification to force Kocharian to do anything they want. Basically, they need presidents like Kocharian who lack legitimacy in order to demand concessions in other areas such as Karabakh, and now they have them. You’ll see this in play next year. Enjoy.
Comment by Onnik Krikorian — 11/29/2005 @ 10:40 pm
Onnik is right, Armenia is governed by other, unwritten and mobster laws. It’s a pity the West has not understood this. They say the constitutional amendments will bring us closer to Europe. But how? Through Soviet-style vote rigging? BTW, Radio Liberty programs in Armenian were jammed today for a third consecutive day. Just like in good old Soviet times. Long live European integration! Thank you, the civilized world!
Comment by H. Hovsepian — 11/29/2005 @ 11:17 pm
Onnik, honey, I am surprised you are still in Armenia, after threatening everyone that if “things don’t change I am leaving”. Well more and more, it looks like things won’t change to the way you want them to. So you better start searching a photography job in the UK (passport photos?) now, because I have news for you.
Very strong possibilities:
1. 2008: Serge Sargsyan President, Kocharian PM.
2. 2007: Pro-Kocharian Parliament.
3. 2006: Karabagh solution
Karabagh independence referendum (or join Armenia) , Azerbaijan gets back 5 districts. Lachin-Kelbajar demilitarized zones with international peacekeeping, their fate to be determined in the future.
Azerbaijan gets to use a road to Meghri to be connected to Naxichevan and Kars-Gyumri-Tbilisi-Baku railroad is reactivated.
Concessions? Only very logical ones and a healthy compromise.
And yes. Eat your heart out. Unless of course YOU will run as president in 2018 since you can take on Armenian citizenship… thanks to Kocharian.
Comment by Armen Sinanian — 11/29/2005 @ 11:50 pm
I would never take Armenian citizenship as it stands because I do not want my rights trampled upon on a daily basis, as most citizens here experience.
Anyway, that’s what we’ve got to look forward to, huh? Serzh Sarkisyan as President, Kocharian as PM. Great news. Continuing regression towards higher levels of corruption, greater human rights abuses, and even less democracy.
Like I said, enjoy…
Comment by Onnik Krikorian — 11/30/2005 @ 1:03 am
RL is REALLY being jammed? It isn’t just a technical difficulty?
Comment by Katy — 11/30/2005 @ 1:13 am
Onnik and Armen, please take your pot shots at each other to private e-mail. Any more comments directed at each other will be removed. Thank you.
Comment by Katy — 11/30/2005 @ 1:14 am
Robert Kocharian and Serzh Sarkisyan are setting the rhythm of how Armenia is supposed to be developed. Despite some shortcomings they have done quite well on the economic, poverty-reduction, army-building, Karabagh issue, Genocide issue,Diaspora relations and democratization of state structures with the new constitution which was overwhelmengly approved by more than 90% (wow!!!!) of the voters .
I think Armenia at this point in its history surrounded by enemy neighbors should be a nationalistic semi-democratic state. Anything more will harm the homeland. Diaspora should not listen to rumors and support the Armenian government in this transition time. This is what patriotism means today.
Mostly because there is absolutely NO alternative to the present authorities. The alternative are mostly people who were given a chance in the government and they lost their job mostly because of incompetence. Aram Sargsyan, the other Aram Sargsyan, Manucharyan, HHSh mafia, Bazeyan, Vazgen Manukyan even Raffi Hovhannesyan (given a second chance by Kocharian as Armenia Fund head, then fired). Even though Raffi would be a good candidate but sadly he has no team.
Comment by Armen Sinanian — 11/30/2005 @ 2:46 am
Would someone shed some light what dual-citizenship clause mean ? Can I apply now ? How much does it cost ?
What are other conditions ?
Thanks a bunch!
Comment by Tim — 11/30/2005 @ 5:24 am
The constitution that the authorities falsified will not stand forever. At some point, the authorities will be overthrown, and new constitutional referendums and presidential and parlaimentary elections will occur. Therefore, I wouldn’t be so quick to rush and become a dual citizen. It’s illigitimate anyway.
Armen Sinanian, how dare you say Armenia should be a semi-democratic state. Do you live in Armenia? Have you experienced what it’s like to live in poverty and being hopless? Have your rights as a human being be violated repeatedly? Do you realize that the population continues to leave, and those who do not leave dream of leaving. Some who leave go to Dubai to “work”. Who do you think is responsible for this?? It is an insult to the Armenian nation to support Armenia dictator.
Comment by Roders Shagvaladyan — 11/30/2005 @ 7:24 am
I can certainly see how these changes in the constitution make it possible for a Karabakh peace deal - and conveniently enough give a mechanism to accept Western Armenia back from Turkey as well
So it is interesting to see if a peace deal can actually come up, at a time when the Azeri government seems to be doing nothing at all to prepare its population for any concessions of any sort.
And yes, the presidential immunity thing is nice, but aside from that and possibly declaring martial law in order to remain president by preventing new elections (which seems a bit unlikely, though I wouldn’t rule it out), I still don’t see what the powers that be had to gain to make that large a scale falsification worthwhile to them. Of course I had also never seen such a large scale European/US pro-vote campain here (in direct opposition to the campaign of the Armenian opposition parties)… so maybe that did have something to do with it?
Maybe time will tell.
Comment by Raffi Kojian — 11/30/2005 @ 8:47 am
Katy, as far as I can see, Hovakim allowed Armen to take pot-shots at me first when he should have moderated and/or edited them. When that happens, of course I will defend myself if Blogrel allows such comments to be posted in the first place.
As for Tim’s question re. dual citizenship, not yet. The amendments will not be in force until after the 2007 parliamentary elections and the process of applying will be via a special law that was mostly complete 2 weeks before the referendum was held (hmmm…).
However, it is likely that applicants will have to reside in Armenia and also fulfill their obligations to the state such as military service and paying taxes. That said, it is possible that there could be a “watered-down” law which allows citizenship in absentia but without voting rights.
Personally, I think the process should be the same as for, say, refugees in Armenia which means 5 years (I think) residency etc.
As for changing the cosntitution again, this is not the matter. Making whatever constitution work is the main issue. Also, countries should avoid constantly changing the constitution whenever it suits them (or in this case, the Council of Europe).
Sure, a minority voted for the amendments in a falsified vote making the constitution lack legitimacy, but let’s face it, Armenia does not decide the content of its constitution — the Council of Europe does and will continue to do so for some time.
Comment by Onnik Krikorian — 11/30/2005 @ 4:41 pm
I also wonder why now? Kocharian was quite powerful as it was so there was no real need to kick the opposition’s behinds. Unless the aim is to start the presidential two consecutive term limit from scratch.
So it makes sense to look for a motive in the foreign policy. It is no wonder that the new constitution gives him power to alter the Armenian borders and gives him immunity from prosecution.
Comment by nazarian — 11/30/2005 @ 7:00 pm
It is disgrace to have authoritiies like we have in Armenia. But it is double disgrace to have such opposition.
The amendements are good for republic, even if they do not apply now. However the way they are adopted is shameful and actually make more harm than simple act of fraudulent referendum. They prove that west is not so concerned about democracy as much as things get done their way. But it adds apathy and disillusion to more people in Armenia and newer generations. It will be not easy to fix this.
As for A.Sinanians comments: its true, Armenia needs stable and strong President. But strong doesnt mean un-democratic. And stable doesnt mean we want a stable, poor, insignificant country which RK and his gang manage as it is just another Eloktrolamperi gorcaran.
Comment by Գագիկ — 11/30/2005 @ 10:45 pm
I am the only admin that moderates comments, FYI.
Comment by Katy — 12/1/2005 @ 3:01 am
Gagik jan,
Stable and strong in today’s Armenia have still little to do with Western democracy. After the cowardice of Ter-Petrosyan in the 90’s Kocharian came exactly at the right time to put the country in the right direction, sometimes in authoritarian ways , but nevertheless in the right direction. In 2003 the alternative was simply pathetic so once again Armenian “democracy” decided to put him back in power. In these years he has taken many commendable and brave steps both internally and externally , which will truly help the country in the long run.
And it is good that while he is still President the Karabagh agreement is reached.
My overall impression of him, and his team are good under these conditions. And mostly because the alternative is not there!
Comment by Armen Sinanian — 12/1/2005 @ 8:36 am
Armen jan,
I strongly disagree about Ter-Petrosian evaluation. He will go to to the history as one of the forefathers of the new Armenian Republic, president who won a war, Armenian history knows little such examples. Of course I know well and recognize his weakness, but it doesn’t weight in history.
I strongly disagree that “the end justifies the means”. It is excuse of all dictators, monstrous ones among them. The Karabakh post-war policy of RK is nothing else than a copy of steps LTP went through, so we still shall see to what end it will come.
I strongly disagree that Armenia is doing well enough economically. The ststistics are as fraudulent as the elections. The monopoly of a few criminals, who call themselves “oligarkhs” kills all economic activity, competitivity and free market economy. Their narrow-mindnes and bad taste grips on the Republic and hindres any development, not only economic but also cultural.
I strongly disagree that Armenia is doing well politically. Armenia is doing very bad in relations with Russia, fully surrendering its energetic authonomy, and is not a regional leader, inspite of being surrounded with such idiots as our neighboring republics.
Of course I understand if you are among those a few selected ones who is permitted to run a little “monopoly” business or put lion share of state taxes in your own pocket, RK governance will be good for your health and wealth.
I dont know what are you so happy about, except maybe your own well doing?
Comment by Գագիկ — 12/1/2005 @ 8:56 am
Dear Gagik,
In fact I work in Europe to support financially my family in Armenia, the story of thousands of other Armenians who do this. So I know the struggle my family goes through. And I’m obviously not connected to an oligarch
To say that Ter-Petrosyan won the war is misguided. The war was won by the Armenian military established by Vazgen Sargsyan and many other heroes of the Karabagh War. Politically LTP did nothing about Karabagh except staying silent.And when he really spoke it was in 1997 when he was ready to hand over Karabagh to the Azeris. The evil deeds of the HHSh mafia is what really came close to destroying Armenia.After selling Karabagh to the Azeris I wouldnt have been surprised if LTP’s next step would have been selling out to Turkey.
And besides, LTP the ACTIVIST and not the PRESIDENT was one of the founders (alongside many who opposed him when he became president) of the Republic.
It is ironic that you even try to compare LTP and RK post-Karabagh policies. Unlike LTP, RK has been very brave in the Karabagh and Genocide issues. In speeches before the PACE or UN or through Oskanian RK has absolutely no fear in stating the truth “Karabagh will not be a part of Azerbaijan” , “Turkey should recognize the Genocide”. Meanwhile LTP (the President) with his cowardice hiding behind his pseudo-philosophical and cynical ideas, didn’t want to hear about Karabagh or Genocide after 1994.
Oligarchs and corruption are the biggest threat to our National Security. And they only thrive because the majority of Armenia’s population isn’t vocal about it. Apathy and carelessness do not build a country. And on this point you cannot blame Kocharian. In any country in the world, and especially post-independence Soviet republics no single individual can survive as president if he doesn’t have economic interests behind him. In Western countries this is hidden in a sophisticated way. In Armenia it is out in the open for now (oligarchs). The difference is made by the population. Do they have a dream of making Armenia’s future corruption and oligarch-free?? If yes, then we should have had a healthy opposition which fights for the people’s rights. And if that opposition is not there or is pathetic and worse than the authorities, that’s when the “end justifies the means” theory comes into force.
Kocharian is the best leader that Armenia can offer today.
Comment by Armen Sinanian — 12/1/2005 @ 11:53 am
Armen, if we had lost the war, wouldn’t you have blamed Ter Petrosian? Revising history is a dangerous passtime, you know.
Comment by nazarian — 12/1/2005 @ 6:01 pm
nazarian, no I wouldn’t have blamed Ter-Petrosyan. It would have been simply a national tragedy. If you give closer attention to what I said, I was refering about the post-1994 Ter-Petrosyan. When the sides were once and for all ready to solve the matter on the negotiating table the Ter-Petrosyan-Libaridian duo were shining with their defeatist coward attitude.And the HHSh mafia was kicked out at the right time to give way to the nationalist Kocharian who lifted the ban on one of the oldest Armenian parties, ARF. He put a real start to eradicate the schism that existed between Armenia and Diaspora (1994-1998)
Even during the war instead of encouraging the Karabagh leadership Ter-Petrosyan made a famous trip there to pull their ears to make sure they wouldn’t go far in their conquests. Good thing the leadership (yes, Kocharian included) didn’t give a damn about what LTP had to say.
Revisionism? I think not. Just remembering the days when Armenia was suffering in the darkness and the chains of the LTP dictatorship.
Comment by Armen Sinanian — 12/1/2005 @ 10:19 pm
I was just wondering if there is any elected position or government agency left ligitimate in Armenia. When you have an illigitimate constitution every thing else associated with the government or the laws becomes illigitimate as well. This is the legacy of Robert Kocharyan, the “Armenian “Rovolutionary” Federation’s” beloved President.
All the talk about the Artsakh issue being solved in 2006, forget it. Neither Kocharyan or Aliev have any legitimacy to sign any agreement. Beside the fact that the two countries are millions of miles away from agreement on the status of Artsakh and Lachin. This conflict will turn into something very much like the conflict in Cyprus, no war, no peace for 30+ years already.
Comment by Roders Shagvaladyan — 12/1/2005 @ 10:49 pm
Armen,
Kharabakh movement was a collective effort of many people. But there were leading figures as you may have noted. There were also a few people who were not so visible making speeches, but working hard behind the scenes. LTP was clearly a leader contributing in behind the scene decision makings as well as quite successfully communicated it to crowds. He had a very important role in preventing chaos, anarchy, eliminating dispersed military groups and establishing state army. Thus Armenia avoided Georgian scenario. It also avoided Azeri scenario, where an academic Elchibay could not establish neither army nor his own support base.
Apparently there were people in charge of different aspects of state creation and VS did his job too. As for diplomacy, it should not be judged by the speeches. Declarations are rarely bring any result in diplomacy. Kharabakh is in Armenian hands not because RK declared so in Strasbourg or UN, but because war was fought and won. And he contributed to that too, I do not ignore that. In order to seal victory we need an agreement of peace. Agreement would not come without compromises, basically because we should rely on others. In order to compromise, RK, or whoever will sign the peace agreement should sell those compromises to the people. LTP apparently failed in that mission, but it was sort of democratic way of doing it: publishing an article in paper. Even Aliev the Father who was in almost absolute power, felt that he should get some approval from population to compromise. RK is not such a strong dictator to be able to sign an agreement without popular support. So in a sense he does nothing to establish a peace.
Well, I don’t know if you agree with me or not, but without peace Armenia’s economic situation is not going to improve significantly. We will be left out from regional development projects or these projects will never materialize.
So what RK does, he manages pretty successfully a little country, insignificant economically and politically, as his own small enterprise for his and people close to him to their own financial advantage. He is good leader, but provincial. The leaders come in different calibers and magnitudes. He is unfortunately of a small caliber, and I do not mean his height.
Anyway, as I stated before, the opposition has nothing to offer, so you may be right at the moment. But why wont you agree, that he should have tried to conduct this referendum in a normal democratic way? It will have brought more credits to Armenia than adopting internationally backed amendments in such a shameful way.
Comment by Գագիկ — 12/1/2005 @ 11:03 pm
The only problem that I see with the LTP legacy was banning ARF and company.
But maybe there was a lot more going on than the Dro conspiracy and the occasional murders of state officials and policemen. Only the National Security Agency knows the details.
Comment by nazarian — 12/2/2005 @ 6:15 pm
Nazarian I agree, the treatment of ARF was wrong, it was too streightforward and brutal, which created unnecessary heroic aura around that party. The ARF matter should be discussed openly and in serios manner, exposing all their wrongdoings in the Armenian history as well as a few bright pages. And more importantly their clandestaine activity. But I agree that they should be kept as far as possible from the governing Armenia, we do not need new war with Turkey, Georgia and Russia at the same time.
Comment by Գագիկ — 12/3/2005 @ 1:55 am
This was/is a pretty interesting discussion.
I will try to shed some light that what happened during 94-97 to answer some of teh questions.
The day when the 2nd presidential ellections results were closed the difference was between tow candiaidates was not much than 1-3 % putting LTp on the winning side. It was so close that it was hard to tell that who won, LTP or Vazgen Manookian( VM). This fact was lately accepted by VM who right after the ellections organised a failed coup de etat with the claim that he won. So lets get back to few hours after the ellection results were known. LTP won by 1-3% but since there are always keen people who are ready to cheat in order to support their candidate it was a hard call. An emergancy government meeting was organised to find a solution, Vazgen Sargsian (VS) enters to teh room and demands that LTP should be the president. Knowing the brutal character of VS and considering his control over army on one side and the ambitions of VM on the other side, LTP obeys. He obeys to avoid a possible military junta and bloodshed and becomes the president. Please note that he was the elected one which later even VM admited.
during his 2nd term LTP in all ways avoided public appearances and contact since I would say he was ashamed and he lost his control over things because he had an uncontrolable diffence minister, a good one in constracting an army but a bad one as a politician and a hamble person.
All is known well that how it all ended: LTP resigned when VS said that he will not obey the presidents orders ( I cant forget his face that time) which ment that tanks would be brough to Yerevan streets. and it all ended with VS, when it turned out that RK is a person of different mentality and can organise things differently as done in Oct 27th. To strengthen my point I would just mention one minor from the first sight but a significant event that happened in the evening of Oct 27. A leader of a country meets an armed person who just killed high officials and proclamed himself as the president of a republic. RK not only meets but also convinces this fighter (self proclaimed President) to surrender. Anyway…
At the end RK achieved what is the most important for a ruler in a country which is in a war. Power over the politics and power over the army. however it didnt come that cheap, to do that he had to compromise. that is, independance of the republic ( put the republic under teh Russian rule), give economical powers to few individuals, foster the corruption to keep the state officials happy, decrease the efficiency in army ( less capable officiers ment possible weak opposition from inside the army), he also had to please the West ( AKA Complimentar Politics) by putting the country under huge debts and implimenting western policies such as the Social Security system where all teh date about the RA citizens are stored in Database servers that are the property of teh US government (USAID- PADCO).
So RK merged the military in politics but lost the independence of RA as a democratic and self governing country. Basically what he did was making RA a colonial military Junta.
Now about RFA. At a point (I think in 92 or early 93) LTP called upon all Armenians worldwide to join him in building Armenia. RFA was one of the first to respond to his calls, with their money and well oiled PR machine they started a strong campaing in Armenia, e.g. dressing some Karabakh worriors only that they will carry RFA flags and participate in documentary films, the fighter didnt mind since since they cared more about winning the war than being a political tools. However RFA was too agressive they were preparing to overthrough the newly established republic which would definitly inflict chaos and a civil war. So LTP asked teh RFA leader Hrair Marookian to kindly leave the country. However the RFA was still operational and was getting stronger. Some consipirators and some innocent RFA members who were in the party because of their tru patriotic feelings were imprisoned and hunted down. Actually some of them who were jailed with Vahan Hovhanissian are still in jails even though VH was pardoned without any founded reasons and made the vice speaker of the Parliament as soon as RK became the new president.
This is the story but details can be known from people who participated in all plts even though most of them misteriously commited sucides or were killed.
H
Comment by Mr H — 1/13/2006 @ 7:59 pm
Well, I guess LTP had reasons to dislike ARF before the Kharabakh movement. But even before 92-93, there was not very coveted hostility of ARF towards the movement. I had an opportunity to listent to one of the first tapes that H. Marukhian sent to Armenia calling to calm down the uprising and demonstrations and disobey the Kharabakh cometee. Of course there was the argument that Russuain Army is going to intervene and there was a danger for Armenian population, but it was wrong message, at the wrong time and all steps after that only confirmed that ARF was not interested in just անկախ, ազատ, but only with them being in the power.
Comment by Գագիկ — 1/16/2006 @ 4:26 am
The only aim of ARf is becoming into power. Of course this is the aim of all political parties however ARF is willing to do anything to achieve that. Usually becoming to power is a means to an end ( to develop a stronger country). However in case of ARF it seems that it is the end itself.
Interestingly ARF is not that popular in Armenia and it never been since the Independence. They might have become powerful by spending money and buying influence however they never became favorite among the general populace of Armenia since the independence. It is hard to say how about their popularity during Soviet era since anything ani-soviet was embraced with some fondness.
Is that because of their messages during the Karabakh Movement when the nation was united, or is it because of their dangerous agendas, or maybe it is because of the short lasting 1st republic, or probably the colour of their party flag, I am not sure.
Personally I would never vote for them considering myself as a person who doesn’t belong to any political party but is an avid history and politics fan.
Comment by Mr H — 1/17/2006 @ 10:24 pm
online roulette online roulette roulette roulette online roulette online roulette free roulette free roulette roulette rules roulette rules play roulette play roulette roulette online roulette online
Comment by online roulette — 6/14/2006 @ 5:15 am
craps online craps online free craps free craps craps craps play craps play craps online craps online craps
Comment by online craps — 6/14/2006 @ 6:58 am