Constitutional Amendments
Just as I thought they would, the former ruling party ANM announced today its vehement opposition to any changes in the Armenian Constitution. As the RFE/RL report notes,
The Armenian Pan-National Movement (HHSh), the main support base of former President Levon Ter-Petrosian, said it will actively campaign against the passage of the current government’s constitutional amendments even if they are endorsed by the Council of Europe.
…The HHSh leadership and other Ter-Petrosian allies staunchly opposed to President Robert Kocharian have always defended the Armenian constitution widely criticized for vesting sweeping powers in the presidency. They say the basic law has been key to “political stability” in the country.
Fortunately, the HHSh is a marginal force at best. Meanwhile, the Armenian opposition, at least those who are least susceptible to HHSh viewpoint, have already indicated their willingness to work towards a new draft along the lines agreed upon by the CoE and the Armenian delegation.
If the draft is approved by the parliament and the opposition factions do return to the parliament, it will raise the level of political stability in Armenia significantly. The level of cooperation between the opposition and the coalition parties in the parliament will be unmatched since before the 2003 elections. Whether the referendum will pass or not is a different matter.
I am still in shock at the fact that the authorities simply agreed to go through with the COE recommended constitutional amendments after all the resistance they put up. I have my fingers crossed that this is a real sign and not just some political ploy and yes this is a great opportunity to raise the stability of the political arena and will truly push Armenia a long way towards democratization.
Comment by Tigran — 6/30/2005 @ 6:02 am
I think it was a simple political maneuver that was meant to highlight Armenia’s cooperative stance vs. Azerbaijan’s refusal to accept COE recommendations on election reform.
Besides, those three items insisted upon by the CoE are not so crucial, I think. The manner of nominating and dismissing the government is always conditional on the political environment, irrespective of what the Constitution says. For example, the current Constitution does not require the government to have a parliamentary majority and represent it, yet it is what happened since 1999. If you take away the power to appoint the judges from the President and into the hands of a 9-member commission, will Armenian judges become less corrupt? Hardly.
More to the point, I think our authorities sensed that those three issues were the ones that the CoE and opposition would continually insist upon, and therefore the CoE and the opposition would pay a higher price for it than it was really worth. So, the government waited until the last moment and gave up. Now, everyone is happy and delighted. The COE will say that it forced the government to adopt such measures. The opposition will be happy to take this opportunity to go back to parliament. The authorities will be content since they were not forced to change radically and amend their ways.
Primitive? Yes, but it works with CoE every single time. Last time around in 2003, the authorities held out until the last moment to abolish death penalty. Consequently, no major protests were raised about the elections in the Council of Europe.
Comment by Hovakim — 6/30/2005 @ 6:25 am
I think the tactics does not matter, why goverment gave up and when. Whats really important is that amandements get adopted without tricky modifications that will allow to eliminate or overpass them.
I was surprised to read about strong opposition put by HHSH a few days ago in D.Petrosian’s analysis (hope i got his name right). Unlike him I think it is last resort that Kocharian clout seeks in order to stop amendments. And probably he has possibility to manipulate them. Thus if succeeds it will look like opposition did not let the Constitution to be amended not the Goverment.
Comment by Գագիկ — 6/30/2005 @ 9:23 am
The government actually was forced quite significantly to back down on the issue of these three points. They resisted all they could and have delayed and delayed. The original demand of the Council of Europe, which in itself was an extension, was to hold the referendum by June.
Regardless, it is a positive sign. The government is weakening in face of internal and external pressure. Shikahogh was also an example of that. Of course, we have yet to see if the government will attempt to play any more games as November nears.
The opposition made reference to these three issues even when the Council of Europe wasn’t and so, it would appear that they fulfilled their purpose quite well. Their return is also probably down to CE requests that they do and for no other reason. That was also mentioned in the same CE conclusion on constitutional ammemdments.
Comment by Onnik — 6/30/2005 @ 10:38 am
Oh LTP… are you getting interesting again?
Comment by Katy — 6/30/2005 @ 3:25 pm
If the new constitution passes the referendum, will Mr Kocharian be able to run for a third term? If yes, then I’m with HHSh.
Comment by Nazarian — 6/30/2005 @ 4:21 pm
I like saying “huh-huh-shuh”
Comment by Katy — 6/30/2005 @ 4:42 pm
This would be a matter for constitutional court to determine as it means making a decision on whether an ammended constitution counts as a new one and thereore, the two term countdown gets put back to zero. Well, they could try this but I think that it would be problematic. Even if the constitutional court were to side with the president on the issue, society would not necessarily tolerate such an event and nor would the CE.
Anyway, the Presidential Elections will be determined by the 2007 Parliamentary Elections so I personally think that unless they really want to destabilize the country they’d leave this idea well alone and get on with preparing the ground for whoever will succeed Kocharian. It’s a possibility but I don’t think Armenia has that much of a dictatorial or “Asian” mentality.
Famous last words…
Comment by Onnik — 6/30/2005 @ 6:03 pm
Onnik, the Armenian government keeps surprising me with its capability to sink to a new dictatorial low. When you think they can’t do any worse, they come up with a brand new trick.
Comment by Nazarian — 6/30/2005 @ 6:34 pm
The most important amendment is that people of Yerevan will be able to elect their mayor. AOD is guilty of creting a constitution where no form of self government exists, everyone from marzpets to down the strech are appointed. What happens in Armenia is consequense of their failure to create democratic foundations in country. Democracy doesn’t start from the presidency, it starts from your neighborhood. For me AOD is perpertrator and victim of its own policies. So, they better shut up.
Comment by firefly — 6/30/2005 @ 8:42 pm
nothing in the Constitution suggests a possibility for a consecutive third term for the president. Even if a completely new Constitution was adopted, the president would still be bound by the two-term limits which was in force when he was elected, and is also a part of the law on the presidency.
It’s interesting that the HHSh keeps bringing the possibility of a third term for Kocharian, as if they beg him to try. As a reminder for those who were not following the Armenian politics in mid-90’s, the HHSh seriously prepared for a third term for LTP in 1995, under the same argument that they now say Kocharian will use. Namely, LTP was elected in 1991, but since the constitution with a two-term limit was adopted in 1995, his 1996 term would be his first, and so on.
Of course, the domestic politics in Armenia precluded LTP from serving even his full second term. And so, the issue of his third term became moot.
The bottom line is, there’s only so much one can get away with in the Armenian politics. Rigging elections is one thing; playing games with the term limits is another. No matter how hard Kocharian would want it (although he has always specifically ruled it out), he can’t have it, simply because the political system in Armenia is not programmed that way.
Comment by Hovakim — 7/1/2005 @ 2:59 am
IWPR report on the CE - Government Constitutional Ammendments Story
http://www.iwpr.net/index.pl?archive/cau/cau_200506_293_3_eng.txt
Anyway, I also agree that there is nothing in the constitution that would allow a third term for Kocharian.
However, there is the idea that by ammending a constitution you can argue that it is therefore a new one and the two term limit count goes back to zero.
Actually, this is a pretty weak argument even though all it would take would be a ruling from the Constitutional Court, I guess. However, nobody would stand for it even if they tried it.
And as I said, the presidential elections in 2008 are one thing. First, however, we have to get through parliamentary elections by 2007 which will determine a good many things regarding what will happen in the presidential elections.
Comment by Onnik — 7/1/2005 @ 3:14 pm
Carnival of Revolutions
Welcome to this week’s Carnival of Revolutions. Were I a more creative person, I’d have some tie-in to independence day. But nope, I’m not, so here’s the news.
Happy Independence Day from Philadelphia!
General
Mark A. Rayner at The Skwib k…
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