And talking of Georgia…
The Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor has just published an article on fresh calls for “revolution” in Armenia. To be honest, I’m not sure what will happen and when but am inclined to believe that if anything does it will be when the next Parliamentary Elections are held but in particular, if they are falsified.
At stake then will be the issue of succession to Kocharian or perhaps, as some consider is possible, that the incumbent will seek a third term in office. However, I am not sure that the Council of Europe would tolerate that and it’s more likley that Kocharian will try to handpick his successor. There are other flashpoints, however.
Opposition leaders hope that the upcoming referendum on amendments to Armenia’s constitution, drafted by the authorities, or local elections due in October, will serve as a catalyst for a massive pro-democracy movement. Kocharian may yet move to scrap a constitutional provision barring him from seeking a third term of office in 2008.
Perhaps the most interesting part of this article, however, is at the end and it is this that ties this blog in with whatever processes were and still are in play in Georgia.
Tigran Paskevichian, a columnist with the independent weekly 168 Zham, made a similar point last month, arguing that the spectacular revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine were the expressions of a popular desire to embrace Western values. He is not sure most Armenians want to make such a choice.
“Do we have today the ‘critical mass’ that realizes the difference between Soviet and Western values?” Paskevichian wrote. “Do we have today the ‘critical mass’ that wants to get rid of the flawed Soviet lifestyle. If we do, then long live the revolution.”
The full article can be read online here.
“Do we have today the ‘critical mass’ that realizes the difference between Soviet and Western values?” Paskevichian wrote. “Do we have today the ‘critical
mass’ that wants to get rid of the flawed Soviet lifestyle. If we do, then long live the revolution.”
— I don’t see it as Soviet vs. Western values. I think that the point is that people need to know that it is possible to live easier lives but that there are going to be some sacrifices.
For example, leading a more “Western” life is going to mean that family time is going to diminish. It also means that traditional family structures and rules are going to be turned upside down.
A more “Western” lifestyle is also going to mean that everyone is going to have to look at situations with a more pragmatic outlook, rather than a nationalistic one.
A more “Western” lifestyle means that respecting women, minorities, and all of the “others” is essential.
Is this “Western”? Maybe…
I just wish that someone would come up with a new model where some of the good “Soviet” or “Eastern” values that work well (families being close, respect for relationships, etc.) can mesh with “Western” values that include economics progression, more freedoms, and an EASIER life.
It is my hope that I am helping to mold individuals that can create this model through the FLEX Program. My kids are at: www.flexvermont.org and http://www.katypearce.org/blog/blogger.html
Comment by Katy — 4/29/2005 @ 6:43 pm
Hi Katy, I think the point is that there was some geopolitical orientation going on during the Georgian and Ukrainian revolutions and that people were prepared to fight for their rights. Also, and in particular, the leaders of the “revolutions” represented new outlooks and more importantly, change.
In this sense, the argument is that none of the opposition leaders in Armenia represent genuine change. It’s as if the system in place is the system in place and the battle is over who should lead it rather than who can evolve the situation away from what is still a somewhat authoritarian system.
Basically, when people talk of “western values” in the context of political movements in the FSU it’s about democratic elections, human rights, civil societies, free economies etc.
Forget “western lifestyles” because that varies from country to country and more importantly, requires a stronger economy that Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia won’t have for decades. Also, in the UK and US, ethnic communities can still have “western outlooks” while preserving their traditions and culture.
What we’re talking about is committment to democracy and human rights and an understanding within society that not only can they break free from the system in place to fight for these rights but that also, they should.
Comment by Onnik — 4/29/2005 @ 6:52 pm
But a critical mass would include “regular” people, not just revolutionaries getting fired up about changing things, right? And those people do need to fully understand how change will mean improvements and sacrifices. There must be a balance… but you’re right, until economics catches up, the things needed to truly revolutionize day-to-day life aren’t going to appear.
Comment by Katy — 4/29/2005 @ 6:59 pm
I think key is the need for mentalities to change. Otherwise, we will probably get a revolution in 2007, 2008 or even before without any idea of where the country will go. An interesting example. Aram Sarkisyan is talking of a new western orientation but he is saying this for external rather than internal consumption. In reality, you need a belief in democratic elections inside the country and only then, can the west see that you’re serious about continuing along that path. Can change be imposed from outside? I don’t believe so. I think that people inside a country also have to understand the need for change.
Perhaps the Georgians and Ukrainians didn’t understand that when they voted for the opposition but it was plainly clear that this was what the two candidates represented. I suppose we might even wonder whether that was truly understood in Georgia in November 2003 and this is why there is some discontent brewing there now. They didn’t exactly understand what moving closer to the west entailed and that it would take a long time to achieve.
Probably the same would be the case in Armenia with too many people expecting an immediate change overnight without understanding that they must also be part of that transformation.
Comment by Onnik — 4/29/2005 @ 7:11 pm